I always emphasize that not every bet that wins was the correct side, just like not every losing bet possessed an incorrect process. I know that sounds like an easy disclaimer to discredit losing tickets. Still, it is essential to remember that we typically are dealing with roughly three percent long-term edges for some of these matchups that only get one chance to realize a positive equity return.
I say all that to stress that this has been an event to forget for me in Detroit after taking on some of the most significant overachievers during multiple iterations of matchups. A lot of this should emphasize the need for proper bankroll management because disastrous outings are always potentially around the corner.
I am not going to add to the damage of the week with any additional head-to-head matchups in round four, but what might end up being famous last words from me, I do believe this DFS slate on Sunday possesses some interesting options to buy low on if you are looking for bounce-back candidates.
Let's talk about a few of those names below!
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic Round 4 DFS
Here are all the players in the top 30 of my model who are underachieving through three rounds on the leaderboard when considering their actual ball-striking versus baseline short-game totals.
To simplify things, this will only include players who should also be inside the top 35 of the leaderboard. I didn't want it to start pulling returns from golfers playing poorly with other facets of their game.
Nicolai Hojgaard (DK $8,400)
At this point, I am just going down with the ship of what could have been for Nicolai Hojgaard.
My model placed the 23-year-old fourth in my sheet for projected scoring output through three rounds of golf when adding back in his baseline short-game totals to his actual ball striking marks.
I get the sentiment that lands behind Hojgaard being a sub-par putter in expectation. Still, we are over four strokes below his baseline through 54 holes, which has generated this extremely intriguing buy-back spot for Sunday in DFS contests since he enters the round 49th on the leaderboard.
I am going to need a bail-out in the betting market after Hojgaard went from nearly -400 to beat Taylor Moore heading into Saturday into a substantial underdog for Sunday when we dive into our pre-tournament exposure that we had between those two options, but the more consistent metrics have yet to pull me away from wanting to gain exposure to the talented top-50 player in the world.
Beau Hossler (DK $7,300)
Forget about my model for a second; we don't have to look further than Beau Hossler's projections in the head-to-head market on Sunday to understand that he is underpriced for DFS purposes.
Hossler has shifted to a decent-sized favorite against two similarly priced opponents on DraftKings, Justin Lower and Michael Kim, whom the market respects. We also get him holding his own against Chris Kirk, a name that DraftKings priced at $8,800 for Sunday.
Those same answers came into play within my model when I looked into his first-place rank in this field for 'Baseline Putting + Around The Green Score.' That suggests Hossler would be in the lead of this golf tournament if he got his typically sound-performing results with the flat stick over the opening three days.
There is no guarantee that he will turn it around on Sunday. However, I will trust the second-ranked Weighted Putter in my model to give us his best effort at this reduced rate.
Ryo Hisatsune (DK $7,300)
I ran a qualifier in my model to feature all players who have gained with their critical Strokes Gained metrics (outside of putting) and also ranked in the top 45 of my head-to-head portion of the sheet.
Of those names, Ryo Hisatsune, Beau Hossler and Jake Knapp were the only three who were underachieving on the leaderboard based on their tee-to-green production.
The impressive part about what we have gotten from Hisatsune is that he has managed to get himself back into the black on his approach metrics, an area where he lost negative-3.23 strokes with his irons on day one before skyrocketing back to the tune of +3.86 shots to the field over the next 36 holes.
There are a lot of ways to make DFS builds on Sunday, but it is hard for me to ignore the consistent production we have gotten from Hisatsune for the price.
