2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic Statistical Breakdown

Here are the top-five projected win equity players in my model entering Saturday:

As has been the case the entire week, my model remains exceptionally bullish on Nicolai Hojgaard's chances to continue surging the leaderboard. We are probably going to need that sort of a return from either Hojgaard, Min Woo Lee or Taylor Montgomery if we want to overcome what has been an absolute trashing by the hands of Taylor Moore through two days of fading him, although we can talk about why that has been one of the greatest overachieving performances my model has rendered so far this year later in this article.

You will notice that books are trying to prevent you from taking Moore on by placing every opponent as a hefty favorite against him, but let's look at the data provided so far and go into greater detail about why that may be so far this week.

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic

Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

One of the problems I am noticing with this event is how poor ball-striking has a higher propensity to get bailed out because of the massive increase in production from someone's short-game totals. We see some of that when looking into five of the top-15 players off-the-tee failing to make the cut.

Unfortunately, that enhancement nature with the putter is what I am trying to take on weekly when finding matchups. I do think a lot of those "fade" candidates will falter over the final two rounds, but the lackluster predictability because of the ease of the course has caused a few head-scratching results of players massively exceeding expectations on the leaderboard when comparing baseline returns.

Strokes Gained: Approach

We knew that Detroit Golf Club had the nature of turning into a Pitch + Putt contest pre-event.

I definitely am noticing a higher chance of upside from those who gained with their irons over their opening two rounds than with the driver. However, it is interesting that a higher percentage of the overachievers on the board managed to gain with the driver over their irons.

That lack of consistency is yielding such a wonky return within my sheet.

Strokes Gained: Around The Green

My model will always find "overachieving" numbers for most players who gain at this rate with their short-game totals.

This section is no different, with Ryo Hisatsune being the only "underachiever" in my model to make the cut after gaining such a high total with his around-the-green performance. That is one of the things that happens when you drop 3.33 shots with your putter to even the playing field between those two categories.

Strokes Gained: Putting

Fading Taylor Moore pre-event has been a frustrating experience after he landed in 52nd on the leaderboard when he should have been 131st when giving him his actual ball-striking and baseline short-game totals.

Players Gaining In All Four Strokes Gained Metrics

Other Players Gaining In All Three Strokes Gained Metrics (Removing Putter)

Expected Score When Given Baseline Putting + Around-The-Green

Biggest Underachievers On The Leaderboard – Who Made Cut
(Using Baseline Short Game + Actual Ball Striking)

Biggest Overachievers On The Leaderboard – Who Made Cut
(Using Baseline Short Game + Actual Ball Striking)