2024 Sanderson Farms Championship Round 4 DFS Picks
Here are all the players who graded out as having a positive value for Round 4 when comparing DraftKings' price to my 'Head-to-Head Totals' or DraftKings' price to 'Projected Scoring' after using baseline short-game metrics to recalculate a leaderboard.
The two caveats to this list are that every player had to be a top 25 scorer in my recalculated model. That also included any player within a margin of error (if they possessed a top-five scoring total in my sheet). If someone didn't fit those criteria marks and was graded outside the top 30 of the field for "H2H Rank," their name got removed from within the filter.
The big takeaway from that list is how Saturday leader Keith Mitchell was removed from the filter.
My numbers did have Mitchell as the projected favorite to capture this title. However, my model was alarmed by how Mitchell carried the highest price tag and most significant ownership return because of his projected starting position on the board.
I don't necessarily think any of that is a death sentence toward his playability, but I would likely rather take my chances against him (even if the singular most likely winner happens to be the American) since the built-in points for a victory won't carry quite the same weight when faced with a birdie fest course.
Here is how scoring works on Sunday:
High-End Buy: Eric Cole ($9,400)
I have varying views on the players above who graded as positive values in the filters I ran, although I do think that it is worth noting that the entire group will make up a substantial percentage of my Sunday player pool.
One tangible takeaway from that return is that most of my builds want to start no higher than Eric Cole on the salary scale. I do think you can start mixing and matching options like Nick Dunlap and Seamus Power when you find yourself with an ample salary (don't be afraid also to leave some money on the table), but Cole generates the perfect blend of birdie upside, price tag decrease and hidden win equity compared to most of his counterparts.
My model has continued to grade him as the top head-to-head target on the slate since round one, a product of Cole grading as one of only four players to grade top 21 for ball-striking over all four rounds.
Austin Smotherman, Lucas Glover and Charley Hoffman would be the other three.
Mid-End Buys: Beau Hossler ($8,800), Chandler Phillips ($8,000), Ryan Fox ($8,00)
I realize those three players possess a large group of names to consider, stretching from Beau Hossler (2nd) to Chandler Phillips (41st).
You are going to land under some heftier ownership projections for Hossler and Ryan Fox because of where they stand on the leaderboard, but it did feel as if those two possessed the cognomen of being "good chalk" because of how well both have struck the ball for three rounds.
Phillips will land as more of that under-the-radar target that some gamers may skip because of his lackluster performance on the leaderboard. However, something is to be said about him grading 10th in 'Projected Score' had he received his baseline short-game totals.
Low-End Buys:
I don't think there is a must-have option from the list above.
I plan to rotate in a lot of those names throughout various builds from the mid-to-high-end players that I am targeting and will hopefully put together the right pieces from doing that through the mass-entering of contests.
If you want a deeper dive into my model, you can always view it when you head over to my Twitter.
You can also get a better look at what those totals mean in the first image of the article since that will include the categories.
