The PGA Tour travels to Mississippi for the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship at the Country Club of Jackson.
So, let's get into our Sanderson Farms Championship preview, picks, predictions and best bets.
Sanderson Farms Championship Picks: Our Best Bets
Betting Favorite We’re Backing
Matt Gannon: Maverick McNealy +2500 (DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: Eric Cole +4000 (BetRivers)
Spencer Aguiar: Chan Kim +4000 (FanDuel)
Josh Perry: Nick Dunlap +3300 (Bet365)
Best Long Shot
Matt Gannon: Lee Hodges +11000 (DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: Taylor Moore +6000 (Caesars)
Spencer Aguiar: Michael Thorbjornsen +12500 (BetRivers)
Josh Perry: Henrik Norlander +7000 (FanDuel)
Player To Fade
Matt Gannon: Henrik Norlander
Tony Sartori: Keith Mitchell
Spencer Aguiar: Cameron Champ
Josh Perry: Keith Mitchell
Sanderson Farms Championship Preview: Experts' Betting Strategy
Matt Gannon: This is a golf course we're used to seeing on the PGA Tour.
Truly, it is one of the more bland designs that we see on an annual basis. The key to success around this place is to hit your irons to within 20 feet and get really hot with the putter.
We have seen both bombers and short hitters thrive here, so there is really no style that is a must. It all boils down to the golfer who can make the most 15 footers.
With that being said, this is a really good week to spray the board and build a bigger betting card. I can't remember a tournament more wide open than this one.
Tony Sartori: The Sanderson Farms Championship returns to the Country Club of Jackson, which has hosted this event annually since 2014.
The Country Club of Jackson is a par-72, 7,461-yard track that underwent a redesign by John Fought in 2008. There are two things to focus on at this venue.
First, 18.2% of approach shots come from the 150-175 yard range, which is the largest distribution of approach shots among any of the 25-yard groupings. Since it is relatively easy to score here, I will be looking at birdie-or-better percentages from that range.
Second, putting matters here. Last season, four of the top five finishers ranked in the top seven among the field in Strokes Gained: Putting — the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.
Spencer Aguiar: I would say that there are probably four avenues you need to pinpoint when building a model.
- Can you take advantage of this generous layout off the tee? Players only hit 53% of fairways, but the missed fairway penalty is virtually non-existent because of the lack of hazards.
Can you gain with your irons, specifically when diving into the short iron variety? Players will see a decrease compared to expectation from each 25-yard bucket this week, except for the two exceptions between 100-125 yards and 125-150 yards. The nearly 36% ask from that 100-150 range is almost seven percent higher than average.
How do you perform putting on extremely fast Bermuda greens? That would probably be the most critical factor of the group as it's the only metric to grade above the PGA Tour average.
Can you generate scoring upside on the four par-fives and singular short par-four that measures under 350 yards? Unfortunately, that metric probably generates the most volatility as over 47% of the winning score output has been created on the four par-five holes alone. We then add an additional 12% on that aforementioned par-four 15th, and you get a data return that shows 27% of the holes accounting for nearly 60% of the winning score.
Josh Perry: When Luke List and Cam Champ have both won on a course, I’m starting with distance and working from there.
It’s a pretty basic set up this week without much danger for the guys who spray the ball. Because of that, I feel like this course gives an edge to the strong drivers, unless shorter players can get hot with the putter.
Sanderson Farms Championship Picks
Matt Gannon: Mac Meissner Top 10 (+400)
Meissner is a golfer I'm buying in the fall. He has shown an ability to pop in all categories and has gotten himself into the mix before.
These young golfers aren't going to look perfect statistically. You need to dig a little deeper and find a few stats that may pop in the future. The fact that Meissner has shown the ability to gain strokes in all categories tells me he's a well-rounded player and can play on any course. He's a golfer who will surely make you money during the fall swing.
Tony Sartori: Chandler Phillips Top 20 (+330)
Phillips is coming fresh off a T13 finish at the Procore Championship, which marked his fifth top-20 finish over his past 15 tournaments. That immediately makes this a playable number by napkin math, but we should also like Phillips this week based on the course fit.
His putter has been on fire, gaining true strokes on the greens in seven of his past eight tournaments. Meanwhile, Phillips ranks 16th on Tour this season in birdie-or-better percentage from the 150-175 yard range.
The only reason this line is as long as +330 is because Phillips missed the cut in his lone appearance here in 2020. However, that doesn’t bother me at all as he was just 23-years-old at the time and making his fourth Tour start.
Spencer Aguiar: Different Wagers on Chan Kim
No top-five finishes in 46 events leaves something to be desired, but we are talking about someone who has 10 wins throughout various other locations, including back-to-back Korn Ferry titles during the 2023 season.
Kim ranked second in my model when faced with an easy scoring property and climbed to an impressive 10th for recent Strokes Gained: Total. While some of the high-end marks on the leaderboard are lacking, five top-29 finishes in his past six starts shows a golfer trending toward something better than we have historically received.
As you can tell, I want very little exposure this week and am not mentioning a specific wager. Nonetheless, Kim is someone I'm actively pursuing in matchups, placement wagers and maybe even as a DFS play if the opportunity presents itself.
Josh Perry: Nick Dunlap to Win (+3300)
No one should be ahead of Dunlap in the outright odds this week. He’s already got two wins in similar field types at the Amex and Barracuda this year.
Now, he’s heading to a course that should fit his style of play. He’s a long player and there’s no real danger here.
Also, the Alabama native should be comfortable on the Bermuda surfaces he'll see this week.
It’s a combination of talent, playing style and course fit that has him at the top of my board this week.
