2024 Scottish Open Course Preview
We move to North Berwick, Scotland for the 2024 Scottish Open after Davis Thompson lapped the field at the John Deere Classic last week. While it was great to see the young talent get his first win on the PGA Tour, it was a little frustrating because he was first in my model and the last golfer I left off my outright card. Ultimately, I didn’t love the +2500 odds available after Patrick Cantlay withdrew early in the week.
We now turn our attention to the 2024 Scottish Open, which will serve as a prequel to The Open Championship next week. This is one of my favorite two-week stretches of the year, although my usual sleep pattern ends up being thrown off for quite some time.
This will be the sixth time The Renaissance Club has hosted the Scottish Open, and this is the third time this event is co-sanctioned between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour. While this is not a Signature Event, it still features one of the strongest fields of the year. Many of the world’s best will tee it up in Scotland to shake the rust off before the year’s final major as they look to get more familiar with links golf.
The Renaissance Club is a par-70 that measures 7,237 yards. Due to a couple of small details, most refer to this as a links-style course rather than a true links course. It was designed by Tom Doak in 2008 and can play anywhere from easy to very difficult depending on the wind. Weather can always change on a dime in this part of the world, but the current forecast calls for fewer than 10 miles per hour of wind, including gusts, on Friday, Saturday and Sunday.
If we look at the statistics from last year’s event, the field hit 55% of fairways and 63% of greens in regulation. However, the winning score was only 15-under par due to some major wind on the weekend. If the current forecast holds, we can expect much better scoring conditions this time around.
This golf course does set up well for bombers with three par-5s and a drivable par-4, but I view long-iron play as the most important statistic to target. In 2023, 69% of approach shots were hit from at least 150 yards.
The last time we manifested a winner, we hit Bryson DeChambeau at the U.S. Open, so let’s try manifesting one again for the Scottish Open.
Find my 2024 Scottish Open Predictions below.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: +/- $-27
- Current bankroll: $459
2024 Scottish Open Predictions
Tom Kim
Outright +2500 (FanDuel) | Top 5 +550 (DraftKings)
$10 to pay $260 | $10 to pay $65
Tom Kim is coming off a missed cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, but it wasn’t all that surprising given the fact that he narrowly lost in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler the week prior at the Travelers Championship.
After a slow start to the year, the 22-year-old has found another gear this summer. He has finished in the top five in two of his last five starts and has had some tremendous statistics during that stretch. He has regularly gained off the tee and has gained a combined 14 strokes on approach in his last five outings.
He tends to play well on courses that suit his game, and he’s taken a liking to The Renaissance Club over the years. In his two appearances here, he has finished in ties for sixth and third.
Min Woo Lee
Outright +3000 (bet365) | Top 5 +650 (bet365)
$10 to pay $310 | $10 to pay $75
Min Woo Lee is always a difficult golfer to have confidence in because his underlying statistics rarely support his odds in the outright market. He’s elite off the tee and has an excellent short game, but his approach play leaves a lot to be desired.
However, he has gained strokes on approach in three of his last four starts and has rattled off six straight top-25 finishes. He has experience playing all over the world and has a strong track record on links courses.
He won here at The Renaissance Club in 2021 and is coming off a second-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Much like Kim, it feels like his game is peaking at the perfect time for the final major of the season.
Aaron Rai
Outright +4500 (FanDuel) | Top 10 +450 (bet365)
$10 to pay $460 | $10 to pay $55
Aaron Rai is another former winner of this event who has found his way onto my betting card this week. He’s one of the most precise golfers in the field who is accurate off the tee and one of the best iron players in the field. He has gained over 24 strokes on approach in his last seven starts alone.
This impressive ball-striking is something we have come to expect from him over the years, but the recent putting is what really caught my attention. In his last three events, he has gained 8.9, 4.8 and 2.9 strokes putting. His Strokes Gained: Putting performance at last week's John Deere Classic also was the best in the field as he recently started working with new putting coach John Graham.
With this newfound confidence on the greens, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him win a big event like this. He certainly has the rest of the game for it.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Top 20 +240 (bet365)
$40 to pay $136
Christiaan Bezuidenhout is one of my favorite professional golfers. I love the way he carries himself, and he has that underdog mentality that is so likable.
We don’t know him as a prolific winner on our side of the pond, but he has actually won seven times on the DP World Tour in his career. He has an excellent track record on links courses and tends to play this two-week stretch well every year.
He enters in strong form with finishes of T32 or better in nine of his last 10 starts worldwide, and he tied for 16th here in 2022. The biggest weakness for him has always been his driver, but he has gained strokes off the tee in six of his last 11 starts.
I love his top-20 odds at +240 this week.
