I approach the DFS space from a statistical perspective and have always used my mathematical background to derive blueprints and ideas. That isn't necessarily going to be upended here since the core of my being stems from the data I can find and extrapolate into my sheet. However, I would be neglecting my local knowledge of the course if I didn't dive into my understanding of the layout since it is directly in my backyard.
TPC Summerlin is a stunning, picturesque venue that winds its way through arroyos and canyons. The layout presents semi-blind tee shots that players must navigate if they want to take advantage of the nearly 14-yard increase in driving distance from a standard stop on tour. Most of that factor is a testament to the desert spirit, which allows the ball to travel farther off the tee.
There have been iterations of this contest over the years where the winning score has dipped into single digits, most notably in 2017, when heavy gusts ravaged the week's outcome. That answer is worth noting because Las Vegas can always create wind-bound issues at any moment.
We will see what impact it has here in Sin City this week, although I did notice a temperature shift away from some of the typical Summer weather the other day and early forecasts for wind over the weekend. If we do get that output, it could marginally shift us away from the typical 20-25 under-par standard winning score.
Good Chalk
*** All players had to be over 10% in projected ownership to be considered
Harry Hall ($8,400)
- 15th-Highest DraftKings Price
- 10th-Highest Betting Price
- Seventh-Highest Projected Ownership Total
While Harry Hall being listed at $8,400 will make some DFS users feel a little queasy, the fact that we get a highly predictive course that accentuates the UNLV product's game made me dive into the statistics deeper to see why Hall has been so brilliant at similar properties in the past.
Before we start with my findings, I want to note that the baseless hometown/home course narrative is typically a negative answer since the entire industry jumps onto that factor. It doesn't mean the player will or won't find success, but you need a more profound explanation than the local narrative.
TPC Summerlin is my home course. You won't see me in the event this week.
My model found that players needed to dominate from three critical ranges to find a high-end upside for the week. Those are between 100 and 125, 125 and 150, and 200-plus since the field experiences an almost 7.5% increase in importance over expectation compared to an average tour stop for those proximity buckets.
Hall was the only golfer in this field to land in the top 25 of all three ranges for birdie or better percentage. That is extra critical for him because we are talking about a golfer who ranks 80th for overall proximity on any generic course.
The answer we have there can start to explain why birdie-making shoutouts enhance his general output.
Here is his three-year performance at TPC Summerlin:
- Similar Option: Ben Griffin $8,200 (13.50%)
- Contrarian Option: Maverick McNealy $8,600 (6.27%)
Taylor Pendrith ($10,200)
- Third-Highest DraftKings Price
- Second-Highest Betting Price
- Third-Highest Projected Ownership Total
It has not been uncommon for players in the Presidents Cup to see a spike shortly after performing in that contest. Tom Kim is one of those prime examples after his victory here in 2022.
My model placed Taylor Pendrith just behind Kim this week for win equity. I know that will make some believe that Kim will be the better play after going back-to-back at this course and never suffering defeat to anyone in his career, but this is always a numbers game.
I don't have a problem with Kim and will be using him as a safety target because there is no reason to fade him when diving into the data, but I did like the six percent and $600 savings we got from dropping down to Pendrith on the scale.
My model favored Kim in a matchup -108/+108. However, the larger edge will land in the outright market since one is 12-1 (Kim) and one is 27-1 at bet365 (Pendrith).
- Similar Option: Any $10,000+ golfer. Margins are thin this week
- Contrarian Option: N/A
Beau Hossler ($9,500)
- Seventh-Highest DraftKings Price
- Seventh-Highest Betting Price
- Fourth-Highest Projected Ownership Total
In 2017, I wrote an article and stated that the Shriners would be the location of Beau Hossler's first career PGA Tour victory.
We have gotten multiple close calls at this venue over the years, including landing as the first-round leader numerous times, but the time for that prediction to come true might finally be here.
My model thought Hossler should have been victorious at the Sanderson Farms after grading as the best performer. Last week's 11th-place finish at the Black Desert might have been an even better performance at the core of that answer since my model didn't love his fit for the venue in the same fashion it has during every other start during the Fall season.
With no outright victory on his resume at this point of his career, I will continue to double-down that Hossler's first jackpot comes in Vegas.
- Similar Option: Matthew McCarty $9,100 (17.09%), Seamus Power $9,300 ($16.40%)
- Contrarian Options: I'd rather find my leverage elsewhere
