The PGA Tour heads to Las Vegas for the 2024 Shriners Children's Open, which takes place at TPC Summerlin.
Our staff of golf experts has looked into the odds, surveyed the field and identified their best bets. So, let's get into our Shriners Children's Open preview and picks.
Shriners Children's Open Predictions
Betting Favorite We’re Backing
Matt Gannon: Beau Hossler +3000 (DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: Taylor Pendrith +2500 (DraftKings)
Spencer Aguiar: Taylor Pendrith +2700 (bet365)
Josh Perry: Patton Kizzire +5500 (DraftKings)
Best Long Shot
Matt Gannon: Lee Hodges +11000 (DraftKings)
Tony Sartori: Nicolas Echavarria +22000 (FanDuel)
Spencer Aguiar: Maverick McNealy +5500 (BetRivers), Harry Hall +5500 (BetRivers)
Josh Perry: Jacob Bridgeman +6600 (BetRivers)
Player To Fade
Matt Gannon: Davis Thompson
Tony Sartori: Davis Thompson
Spencer Aguiar: Ryan Fox
Josh Perry: Chris Kirk
Shriners Children's Open Preview: Experts' Betting Strategy
Matt Gannon: The tour has been coming to TPC Summerlin for years and we have seen a similar style of golf prevail year after year. This course is medium length, but with added elevation it plays as a shorter design. On top of that, the landing areas off the tee aren't very wide.
That leads to golfers who are generally short and accurate playing this event well. The past four winners at TPC Summerlin have been golfers who were considered shorter than tour average in terms of driving distance. However, that didn't stop them from making 20+ birdies!
With all that being said, we need to look for golfers who will hit fairways at a high rate. From there, it will boil down to either hot approach play or hot putting.
Tony Sartori: TPC Summerlin hosts the Shriners Children’s Open, which it has done annually over the past couple of decades. This course is a Par-71, 7,255-yard track designed by Bobby Weed that rewards strong approach play.
Last season, four of the top six finishers here ranked seventh or higher among the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, the only metric in which such a trend occurred. Also, 19.3% of approach shots come from the 150-175 yard range, which is the largest distribution of any of the 25-yard range groupings.
Therefore, I am looking at birdie-or-better percentages from that range, as well as overall approach play and recent form to help narrow down our best bets this week.
Spencer Aguiar: I always try to attack my hometown course from more than just a statistical perspective since I have inside knowledge of its layout.
TPC Summerlin is a beautiful, scenic venue that meanders through arroyos and canyons. Because of this, we are going to get semi-blind tee shots that players must maneuver through to take advantage of the nearly 14-yard increase in driving distance from a standard stop on the tour.
I have never been one who looks at the data and finds excitement in seeing the past five winning totals land between 20 and 24 under par. That is boring golf that takes away some of the skills needed to separate the quality of a player on tour.
However, consider this a straightforward test that rewards a solid tee-to-green skill while emphasizing most standard needs when playing golf in a heated, desert climate.
Josh Perry: For me, this course most closely resembles one we see in Hawaii on the Champions Tour for the Mitsubishi Electric Championship. We’ve got a fairly easy driving style course that caters more to amateurs with lava rock only in play for the most wild drives and very little rough.
Naturally, the surrounding area is different, with the oceans being replaced by mountains, but the style should still be similar. This feels like a wedge and putter fest where 20-under will probably be required.
Shriners Children's Championship Picks
Matthew Gannon: Michael Thorbjornsen Top 10 (+450)
Thorbjornsen was playing great golf last week before he decided to withdraw with a wrist injury. With that being said, I don't believe he'd be teeing it up if he wasn't good to go.
In his small sample from last week, he gained strokes on approach, which seems to be his x-factor as a young golfer. If he has a good week with the driver, he'll give himself a ton of wedges — clubs he can gain strokes with. His putter has been solid, so this is a great spot for Thorbjornsen to get back into the mix.
Spencer Aguiar: Backing Beau Hossler
I've talked about this story before, but I started my own website in 2017 and covered all the events during the Fall before eventually getting asked to contribute here at Action a few years later.
One of the things I vividly remember writing during that time was how Beau Hossler's first victory was going to eventually come in Vegas at TPC Summerlin, a tournament in which he did seize the opening-round lead next to J.J. Spaun in 2017 before firing a Sunday 73 to fall to seventh.
While we are still searching for that maiden victory eight years later, Hossler's numbers have never been stronger in his quest for PGA Tour success.
I bet Hossler on BetRivers at 35-1 inside their enhanced market early on Monday. The best you will find now is 30-1, but I am going to stick with the prediction that Hossler will make Vegas his first victory because of his pronounced upside totals when faced with desert facilities that feature easy-scoring potential.
If you are looking for safer routes, there are various options to consider, including him in head-to-head matchups throughout the space.
Tony Sartori: Ryan Fox Top 20 (+250)
Ryan Fox’s biggest weakness, by a fairly wide margin, is his inaccurate driver. With that being said, the fairways at TPC Summerlin are wide and missed fairways aren't as penalized here as at other venues.
If we see fairway forgiveness this week, which we will, Fox’s stock will way up. He just finished T11 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and I expect a similar performance this week considering how well he profiles for this venue.
Fox ranks sixth on Tour in birdie-or-better percentage from 150-175 yards and has gained true strokes on approach in seven of his past nine events. He’s posted numerous top-20 finishes over the past year and, at +260, it’s worth taking a shot on him to record another this week.
Joshua Perry: Backing Patton Kizzire
Kizzire is my top play to win this week. He is coming off an 11th last week following a win in Napa to start the fall swing.
When Kizzire picks up a win, he often grabs another in quick succession. He grabbed his first win at Mayakoba and followed it up two events later with a win at the Sony.
Then, on the Korn Ferry Tour, his two wins were within a three-week span.
