Our staff of golf betting analysts has already made three Shriners Children’s Open picks for this weekend, so let's get right into their outright predictions.
2024 Shriners Children’s Open Picks, Predictions
Matt Gannon: Cam Davis (+4000, DraftKings)
Presidents Cup Snub Season rolls on as Cam Davis comes in after a few weeks off. Davis is a high-ceiling golfer who loves a course in which you need to be accurate off the tee. Even though he is considered a bomber, his home course (Sahalee) is one of the most narrow designs on earth!
Cam is extremely motivated and the last time we saw him was a T5 at the BMW Championship, which in fact was at elevation. The stars are aligning for Davis, as we are back at elevation this week and it is a course where he should feel comfortable.
Davis has played this event four times and has never missed a cut here. I love this number for Davis in a field like this, as he has proven capable of winning multiple times in weaker fields.
Tony Sartori: Taylor Pendrith (+2500, DraftKings)
TPC Summerlin hosts the Shriners Children’s Open once again, which it has done annually over the past couple of decades. This course is a par-71, 7,255-yard track designed by Bobby Weed that rewards strong approach play.
Last season, four of the top six finishers here ranked seventh or higher among the field in strokes gained on the approach, the only metric or statistic in which such a trend occurred. More than 19% of approach shots come from the 150-175 yard range, which is the largest distribution out of any of the 25-yard range groupings.
Therefore, I am looking at birdie or better percentage from that range, as well as overall approach play and recent form to help narrow down our best bets this week. That brings me to Taylor Pendrith, one of the tournament favorites at 25/1.
Pendrith ended last season in dominant form, posting five straight top-25 finishes, including a pair of top-five finishes. He gained true strokes on the approach in all five of those events.
Furthermore, Pendrith ranks 48th on the PGA Tour in birdie or better percentage from the 150-175 yard range. Therefore, it shouldn’t be surprising that he finished T3 here last season, and I expect an even better outing this week.
Spencer Aguiar: Harry Hall (+5500, BetRivers)
There are three critical birdie or better ranges that players need to look into this week. Those will be between 100-125, 125-150 and 200+ since the field experiences a 7.5% increase in importance over expectation compared to an average tour stop for those proximity buckets.
That doesn't mean someone who fails to find high-end success in one of those three areas won't be able to hit a jackpot out in Vegas. However, Harry Hall was the only golfer in this field to land in the top-25 of all three areas.
You are going to find additional close calls when looking into three of my additional outrights in Beau Hossler (35/1), Taylor Pendrith (27/1) and Maverick McNealy (55/1). As well as someone I haven't bet in Tom Hoge (33/1). But Hall's recent combination of form and historical data for this venue did make him the most substantial outlier on the board inside of 60/1.
