The PGA TOUR goes from one desert course (Black Desert) to another (TPC Summerlin). The courses are quite close as it's only about an hour and a half drive from St. George to Las Vegas for the 2024 Shriners Children's Open.
We have a slightly stronger field set to tee it up this week, though this field is a bit weaker than it has been historically at this event. TPC Summerlin is a par-71 that measures 7,255 yards. It has been one of the easiest courses on the PGA TOUR in each of the past three years, but the difficulty often hinges on the wind in the forecast. It's still early in the week, but we could see gusts of over 25 mph on both Thursday and Friday. If that holds, the scoring certainly won't be as good as we've seen in the past few editions of this event.
The fairways are quite generous (35 yards wide on average). In 2023, the field hit 61% of the fairways and averaged 305 yards off the tee. Both of those are higher than we typically see on the PGA TOUR. There is also a fairly steep penalty for missing fairways, as this is a desert course.
With three reachable par fives, it certainly makes sense to look for good drivers this week. The greens here are very large (7,400 square feet) and easy to hit in regulation (74% in 2023). They feature bentgrass and should play on the slower side.
Good iron play will allow golfers to hit the right sections of the greens. We can expect a high greens-in-regulation rate, but scrambling has been difficult here over the years. With wind in the forecast, around-the-green play might be more important than usual.
Historically, we haven't seen very many long-shot winners at this event, which is a bit surprising since it's typically a birdie fest. The past five winners include Tom Kim, Sungjae Im, Kevin Na, Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Cantlay. I'm not diving too deep when it comes to my outright best bets this week.
Shriners Children's Open Picks & Predictions
Seamus Power +3300 (FanDuel)
It's been a roller coaster of a year for Power, but he comes into the week playing his best golf of the season. He's finished T11 or better in three straight events, including in each of the past two weeks.
He was positive in all four strokes gained categories at the Sanderson Farms Championship and gained 5.9 strokes on approach at the Black Desert Championship.
He tends to be a streaky golfer, so the +3300 number in this weak field seems more than fair. In his most-recent appearance at this event (2022), he finished T21.
Eric Cole +3500 (DraftKings)
It's only a matter of time before Cole secures his first victory on the PGA TOUR. He has an absurd number of wins on the mini tours and has racked up two runner-up finishes and 11 top-10 finishes in his short career on the PGA TOUR.
After a bad stretch of golf in the spring and summer, he's back to making birdies in bunches this fall. I would argue that he might be the best golfer in the field if you put him and everyone else in the middle of the fairway.
The concern with Cole is always the driver, but the wide fairways at TPC Summerlin should help in that regard. In his debut here last year, he finished T3.
J.J. Spaun +4500 (Caesars)
Spaun burned a lot of people at the Sanderson Farms Championship a few weeks ago but bounced back with a top-30 finish last week at the Black Desert Championship.
He's one of the best in the field in strokes gained per round on desert courses, which isn't that surprising since he lives in Scottsdale. He's a good driver, an elite iron player and his short game seems to be trending in the right direction.
He's played this event six times and has posted three top-15 finishes.
Chan Kim +6000 (bet365)
Kim projects as the eighth-best golfer in my model this week, so I have to bet him at +6000.
He's top 25 in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green, greens in regulation, birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance. The one weakness is his putter, but he's had his best putting splits on bentgrass greens in his career.
He’s made six of his past seven cuts and has three top-15 finishes during that stretch. I love the form and think his game sets up nicely for TPC Summerlin.
Good luck this week!
