I discussed this in my article on Friday night, but the AM/PM split ended up receiving a 3.76-shot advantage over the opening two rounds. That includes 41 of the 66 players who made the third round and 18 of the top 23 names on the leaderboard.
Unfortunately, for those hoping to gain an edge, the industry got this answer correct. However, that doesn't mean mistakes weren't made by some or that edges weren't found, but this space is much savvier than it's ever been.
On that note, let's get to my Shriners Children's Open Round 4 picks.
Shriners Children's Open Leaderboard
If you read my Friday night article, you'll notice that I reversed the color-coding inside of the sheet. I did that because I wanted Friday's article to highlight those who could find their way up the board from the correct end of the draw.
I didn't think pinpointing the wrong wave made sense before the third round started and I also don't think looking at the correct wave is quite as ideal for our Sunday picks.
I noted how players such as Doug Ghim, Kurt Kitayama and Davis Thompson exceeded those from the wrong wave over their opening 36 holes. That threesome kept the momentum rolling and combined to shoot 18-under par in the third round, but where will the lead be after everyone is off the course?
If you could promise me that Ghim would make his 5'5" putt for par on his 17th hole, I believe the 10-1 prices in the space suddenly become very enticing as he's already tied for the lead with J.T. Poston.
It's worth mentioning that Poston has the ability to play the three more accessible holes (14-16) before closing in the more difficult stretch (17 and 18), but I think the most likely scenario lands with us at 16-under.
My model views Poston as being far from a fade candidate since we are talking about a top-10 upside target pre-event who has delivered top-three ball striking marks. Still, if you are looking for value on this board, I would be most inclined to throw a dart on Ghim anywhere in that 9-1 or 10-1 range.
