It has been a weird start to the event this week after a multiple-hour delay on Friday put us in a position where 40 players failed to finish more than five holes, which will include half the field having to come back on Saturday to conclude their second round in some fashion.
I talked a lot about this potential pre-event since early weather forecasts did predict a conceivable edge that might come into play for the AM/PM wave. We could argue the pros and cons of playing two rounds of golf on Saturday before mustering up the energy to close an event out on Sunday. Still, my hometown has always presented that spirit of long nights and quick turnarounds in the morning. Why would we have it any other way for a golf tournament?
We will save the high-level data insights for another day, but let's quickly dive into the board and what this restart means for the players teeing it up early Saturday.
What To Expect This Weekend?
I woke up yesterday morning at 2 AM to some of the strongest wind I can remember in Las Vegas in quite a few years.
I did discuss that potential on Links + Locks this week since Vegas is known for these sudden bursts of wind-bound answers. However, there was a definite answer to this being a long day when 50 MPH+ wind started as early as it did.
It remains the AM/PM split for anyone wondering who benefits from this delay. Not only did that group get the calmer conditions on Thursday when they seized advantage in scoring, but they also got to ignore one of the worst days of the week before getting a much tamer restart on Saturday.
That plays very well for two of my pre-tournament outright bets when diving into Taylor Pendrith and Harry Hall. We saw the duo struggle to produce much of anything during their rounds on Friday but will now get the easy back-nine to begin their day.
2024 Shriners Children's Open Leaderboard
I ran a filter in my model to show all players who had finished their round grade green in the sheet and anyone still on the course to be in bold red.
It doesn't take a data scientist to see that playing in the AM/PM wave was advantageous. However, for those wondering how extreme it is, here is how both waves have scored.
64 Players PM/AM (-25 total) – 2,304 total holes complete
66 Players AM/PM (-208 total) – 1,486 total holes complete
Doug Ghim, J.J. Spaun, Davis Thompson, and Kurt Kitayama have made amazing efforts on the wrong end of the draw, but the problem is that the frontrunners are likely to take the lead more into that 14-under (or better range) before round two ends.
I won't be adding any outright bets since I already have tickets for my top two win equity candidates (Pendrith/Hall). Nonetheless, if this wind continues, the moniker 'What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas' will become factual because the PGA Tour might never leave my city.
