Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Best Bets— our expert picks for the PGA Tour's first full-field event of 2024 at Waialae in Honolulu, Hawaii.
Check out our Action Network golf betting best bets for the 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii, including picks for Adam Svensson, Brian Harman, Corey Conners and more as we go through our 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Best Bets.
2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Best Bets
Jason Sobel: Corey Conners +3300 (FanDuel)
Conners' first-round tee time: 5:50 p.m. ET
Yeah, I know: Corey Conners was one of my outright picks last week, where he finished in a share of 33rd place, and now he’s half the price in a bigger field, which doesn’t exactly smell like a winning formula. Even though I’ll readily take the L for that one, I was always looking ahead to this week and beyond, as I still believe in Conners’ ball-striking abilities and think this is going to be a big year for him.
At Kapalua, he ranked ninth in both off the tee numbers and approach stats, but he was 53rd in putting, none of which should come as a shock. This week’s venue, though, fits his game better, as it won’t take something in the high-20s under par to contend.
In fact, I like him so much as a course fit for Waialae that I’m picking him here for a second consecutive year, as his 25/1 odds in 2023 yielded a T12 result – his fourth top-12 finish in his last four starts at this one.
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Spencer Aguiar: Adam Svensson Top 20 +260 (FanDuel)
Svensson's first-round tee time: 1:10 p.m. ET
If I don't release a head-to-head bet for this article, I probably don't love the betting board because that is my favorite market.
Perhaps you could consider my contrarian target of Austin Eckroat over Davis Thompson if you can pinpoint that price at -110, but with that price on the move at most locations and no longer tangible in the high -120 range, let's dive into a placement-market bet that continues to drain most of the value out of the market.
If that sales pitch doesn't get you excited to bet Adam Svensson +260 for a top 20, I don't know what will. This is one of those number-grab spots since that +260 price on FanDuel is about 60 points higher than the rest of the market.
Svensson's 12 consecutive made cuts generate a high floor, and he is one of the more significant upside climbers for me because of his seventh-place grade for Projected Scoring at Waialae Country Club.
I only bet this to win one unit, but his combination of course history, extended form and statistical intrigue placed it as the best value I could find on a board with more questions than answers. I blame that on the predictive nature of the venue and sportsbooks wanting to avoid exposure to particular golfers.
Matt Gannon: Brian Harman Top 20 +110 (BetMGM | Ties Paid in Full)
Harman's first-round tee time: 12:50 p.m. ET
Brian Harman heads to a perfect “Brian Harman” golf course this week. If you are a golf psycho like the rest of this panel, you know what type of golfer Brian Harman is. He is deadly accurate with his driver, dialed with his wedges and a great Bermuda putter, and that is exactly what Waialae asks golfers to do.
Oddly enough, his results are not great around here. Personally, I believe that boils down to calendar reasons more than anything. Usually, Harman is not playing much golf this time of year, but this year he is.
Harman is coming off of consecutive top-10 finishes at Hero World Challenge and The Sentry and is a more complete golfer than he has ever been in his career. This is the Champion Golfer of the Year we are talking about folks! Harman should have enough in the tank to cash a top-20 finish.
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2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: J.T. Poston
- Spencer Aguiar: Brian Harman
- Matt Gannon: Ludvig Aberg
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Billy Horschel
- Aguiar: Adam Svensson
- Gannon: Ben Griffin
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Biggest Bust
- Sobel: Will Zalatoris
- Aguiar: Ben Griffin
- Gannon: Russell Henley
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Kevin Kisner
- Aguiar: Austin Eckroat
- Gannon: Cam Davis
Trend That Guides Your 2024 Sony Open Betting Strategy
Sobel: For a few decades, the PGA Tour calendar has started at Kapalua and continued at Waialae for a two-week Aloha Swing. Though the courses are on different islands and have almost no intrinsic characteristics in common, those who compete at the first one often have an edge at the second.
That shouldn’t come as such a surprise.
From getting a chance to dial in some new clubs to getting adjusted to the time zone to simply getting a couple of beach days out of the system, those who played the first event have proven to be better equipped for success at the second.
And yet, trying to play this edge burned us last year.
In the half-dozen editions of the Sony Open prior to last year, players who competed at Kapalua won five of them. The Kapalua-to-Waialae guys accounted for just 15.9 percent of the Sony Open field but included 39.4 percent of the players to finish inside the top 10 (plus ties) during that time. Extend that to making the cut, and 73 percent (100 of 137) of players who competed in the first cashed a check in the second.
Then last year happened.
I have no great explanation for it, other than to suggest that even the most telling trends can be quickly undone. While 13 of the 19 players who competed in both still made the Sony cut last year, none finished better than a share of 12th place, as the numbers paled in comparison to previous years.
If that’s enough to dissuade you from backing those who played last week, I suppose I can understand that, but I’ll stick with that long-term trend here and give a little edge to the guys who are already warm – if for no other reason than there’s strength in numbers, as a beefed-up field of 59 at The Sentry leaves us with 38 who are making the 37-minute journey to Oahu, which is double last year’s total.
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Aguiar: There is a reason why Waialae Country Club lands as the second-most predictive venue on the PGA Tour in rollover success annually because there are pronounced variables asked of players repeatedly. This is one of those situations where predictability can only come into play when a golfer is either good or bad at the specific skill set required for the week.
We see that play out here at Waialae when diving into the pronounced increase the field receives from 125-200 yards, a range that will generate over 67% of approach shots. While that answer may (or may not) seem like a ton, the key to deciphering its importance comes down to the over 12% impact in production from that range over a standard stop on Tour.
If golfers aren't hitting a green in regulation from that distance, they are struggling to score. If they are struggling to score, they aren't making the cut. The game ends up being that simple for a course that will require players to either scorch the venue with their irons or make a plethora of putts. Do either of those two things, and golfers have a heightened chance to hula out of Hawaii with the title.
Gannon: With Waialae Country Club, we know what we are getting. Though scores will be low, this week will feature the opposite style of golf compared to Kapalua.
Last week, golfers pulled driver on every hole because the fairways were so wide. This week, the golfers will need to be much more precise off the tee and even club down here and there. The rough is not extremely penal, but the fairways are significantly more narrow.
From the fairway, golfers will be positioned with a wedge on nearly every hole and can go hunting for birdies. I'm betting golfers who can keep it in play off the tee and are excellent with their wedges.
