Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Data Driven Picks— our expert outright bets for the PGA Tour's first full-field event of 2024.
It was a profitable week at The Sentry. I would consider it a much more substantial output for DFS contests since Chris Kirk ended up grading as one of my top values on the board at his upper-tier $6,000 price. However, we still managed to squeak out a profit with our betting card after a solid in-tournament performance netted us +0.81 units overall.
I've been a big proponent of the idea that in-tournament matchups will be where we find our best value moving forward. It doesn't mean there won't be value available in other sectors, but sustainable bankroll growth should always be the name of the game.
Like always, I will highlight some of my favorite plays this weekend over here at Action Network once we tee off on Thursday, but let's take one final dive into the outright board to see where the market has moved, who is still undervalued and what bets I landed on this week in Hawaii.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Data Driven Picks
I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect every Monday to form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't have been able to find better if you had shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's movements over the past 48 hours.
Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market so far this week and add potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I talked about on Links + Locks.
What Golfers Have Experienced The Biggest Market Moves?
When we look into the outright movement of the largest shifts on the board, it is a sea of red on those 11 golfers who are pictured above.
I am not surprised to see substantial shifts this week since Waialae grades as the most predictive course on the PGA Tour — second behind onl Augusta National when we add that into the mix. Predictable trends will always generate steadier floor production totals since the heightened ask in a particular area condenses the skill set requirements.
That comes into play here with the emphasized proximity distribution out of Waialae from 125-200 yards, a range that creates 67.4% of the total shots and 12.3% more impact than a typical test. Historically, players who have controlled their irons from that distance, find the short grass off the tee and make putts are the ones who have steadily produced results.
There is a reason that when that three-pronged answer was added together in my model, it created a similar explanation of the movement on the odds board.
Sony Open Data Driven Outright Picks
Brian Harman 25/1
I had Harman properly priced at 18/1. If you play this in the bet365 enhanced win market, you can squeeze it up to 22/1.
Harman's projected scoring for Waialae and Weighted Strokes Gained: Total output landed him behind only Ludvig Aberg in projected win equity. Over a one percent implied probability advantage is still available when you shop around, although we have lost nearly 1.5% of our edge with this early movement. The margins are starting to shrink.
Justin Rose 55/1
Despite Rose being 35/1 on my aggregated board, you can still locate 45/1 at a book like BetMGM. That is more of where my model is finding value than these 35/1 totals in the space.
Rose ranked inside the top 10 of my model this week for proximity between 125-200 yards, Weighted Scoring, Weighted Strokes Gained: Total and historical performances on short par-70 venues. The price shift early in the week had a lot to do with his Sunday 61 at The Sentry, but I thought this was a situation where markets were too slow to act on his potential upside.
Adam Svensson 70/1
Outside of Harris English, nobody has seen a more significant deviation in their price than Adam Svensson, something my model agreed with after it made Svensson my best bet inside yesterday's Sony Open Best Bets column that I do weekly with Matt Gannon, Nick Bretwisch and Jason Sobel.
Svensson's price in the top-20 market at +260 on FanDuel has collapsed alongside his outright total, but there is a reason he also graded as the best value on the board for a market like DFS (DraftKings version).
Lucas Glover 75/1
People forget that we need upside potential when betting inside the outright market. The floor for Glover is his missed cut at Waialae in 2023, but his upside lands closer to the back-to-back victories he generated at the end of last season.
I will bet on the top-ranked proximity totals for him to mimic this track and hope he lands closer to Si Woo Kim's answer of dominating with his irons and being neutral-plus with his putter than the recipe Cameron Smith provided in 2020 when he scorched the greens to the tune of +8.2 Strokes Gained: Putting but lost 0.8 strokes with his irons.
We all know Glover's putting stroke can be a liability, but the ball-striking potential is there for him to skyrocket up this board.
Top-Two Projected Win Equity Choices In My Model
Best Values To Consider Under 70/1 At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)
Some back-end data on this model propelled Brendon Todd when I incorporated sharp movement into my sheet.
Beyond anything else, this should show my initial value on Glover, Svensson, Rose and Harman. We saw the four plummet with their odds but still land as positive expected returns at their new going rates.
The reverse shift on Jaeger and Spaun did move them into potential values to consider because of their boom-or-bust nature, as did Ludvig Aberg getting to 18/1 at some shops. The aggregated portion of my model only listed him at 16/1, but there are routes to consider at 18/1 if you have that number available.
