Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii First-Round Leader picks — our expert FRL bets for the PGA Tour's first full-field event of 2024.
With The Sentry in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's Sony Open in Hawaii. Waialae Country Club hosts the Sony Open in Hawaii once again this week and has been the host course of the event since 1965.
Waialae is a par-70 at 7,044-yards designed by Seth Raynor and renovated by Tom Doak which features a narrow layout with tree-lined fairways and Bermudagrass greens. The primary way to win at this venue is with strong approach shots to get off the greens quickly.
Find my 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii first-round leader picks below.
2024 Sony Open in Hawaii First-Round Leader Picks
Tyrrell Hatton +3500 (Caesars | 0.5 Units)
First-Round Tee Time: 12:40 p.m. ET
As is always my strategy for targeting first-round leaders, I'm searching for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the day progresses, especially on a coastal course like Waialae.
The earlier you tee off, the more soft greens you face that are much more receptive to your shots. The one objection to this general rule of thumb is when there is an expected weather change between the first and second waves, but that will not be the case on Thursday.
In fact, the wind is actually expected to dramatically pick up for the afternoon wave, going from 5-10 miles per hour to 15-20 miles per hour. That will lend a significant advantage to the first wave on Thursday, which includes Tyrrell Hatton.
Hatton is in the fourth of 24 groups to tee off, and with him being one of the strongest players in this field, he is a strong target to lead after the opening round.
The fiery Englishman has the third-shortest outright odds this week and is an excellent approach player who also doesn't have a weakness in his game, so Waialae sets up nicely for Hatton.
Hatton finished 30th in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green last year on Tour. If you include his appearances on the European Tour, Hatton has now gained True Strokes on approach in 12 of his past 15 tournaments.
He boasts a remarkable nine top-15 finishes over that stretch as well. Finally, he fares well on Bermudagrass, which is the putting surface this week.
Hatton has gained True Strokes Putting in five of his past six tournaments contested on Bermudagrass greens, including his T3 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship. We are catching a great number at +3500 via Caesars, which is a better price than the rest of the market, which has Hatton in the +2500 to +3000 range.
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Chris Kirk +5000 (FanDuel | 0.25 Units)
First-Round Tee Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Chris Kirk is another golfer worth a FRL flyer on Thursday. Kirk tees off just 20 minutes (two groups) after Hatton, which bodes well considering that he will have the chance to take advantage of softer greens and calmer winds than most of the field.
Nobody enters this week in better form as Kirk is coming off his win at The Sentry on Sunday at Kapalua. Having already beaten an elite PGA Tour field in a tournament where he had to go low to win at 29-under, he should have no problem going low at Waialae against a less talented field.
Whether Kirk can go back-to-back remains to be seen, but it is hard to argue that anyone enters Thursday's round as confident as him. He should fare well at Waialae given that he has gained True Strokes on the approach in each of his past five tournaments.
Finally, Kirk has thrived at this venue, which shouldn't be surprising given his great approach game, especially with wedges and short irons as about 65% of approaches Waialae at Waialae are from 125-200 yards. He finished in third place here last year, second in both 2021 and 2014 and T5 in 2013.
Kirk has knocked on the door of winning here multiple times, and he should contend again this week.
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