Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii predictions — our expert golf predictions for the PGA Tour's first full-field event of 2024.
While it was great to have golf back in our lives last week, I didn’t have Chris Kirk on my betting card. He’s been a great comeback story and added his sixth PGA Tour title to his resume.
It was a losing week for us last week, but J.T. Poston cashing our top-20 bet at +190 helped get some of that bankroll back. If you don’t love the roller coaster of emotions that comes with betting golf outrights, I recommend sprinkling in some top-10, top-20 and matchup bets each week.
The PGA Tour stays in Hawaii the for the second straight event, although the courses are extremely different. Last week, Kapalua was a long par-73 with as much slope as you will find on the PGA Tour, but this week golfers will tee it up at Waialae Country Club, which is a very flat par-70 that is a full 600 yards than Kapalua. There are only two par-5s on the course, so we can expect tougher scoring conditions.
The fairways at Waialae are fairly generous (36 yards wide on average), yet they are tough for the field to hit. Only 55% of drives found the short grass at this event last year. The greens are 7,100 square feet on average, which aren’t small unless you compare them to the greens at Kapalua. Despite a low driving accuracy each year, these greens are relatively easy to hit in regulation. Golfers hit an average of 72% of greens last year.
Like at Kapalua and most other coastal courses, expected scoring comes down to the wind. Waialae has played as one of the easiest courses on the PGA Tour in calm conditions, yet it played as the ninth-toughest course on Tour in 2020 due to extremely windy conditions. Early week forecasts call for 20+ mile per hour gusts on both Thursday and Friday and fairly calm conditions on the weekend.
There isn’t one specific skill needed to contend at this course, and driving is less important here than on most courses. From a statistical perspective, the best comps for Waialae are Harbour Town and Colonial Country Club as they are all courses that favor the plodders rather than the bombers. I’m looking heavily at Strokes Gained (SG): Approach, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting and Bogey Avoidance.
We have $100 to work with again this week, and you can find my 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii predictions and picks below.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: -$42
- Current bankroll: $958
2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Predictions
Byeong Hun An Outright +4000 (BetMGM)
Bet $20 to pay $820
This is the strongest field we have seen at the Sony Open in Hawaii in recent memory. With a lot of big names in the field, there's value in the +4000 to +5000 range.
Benny An is coming off of a strong season and picked up right where he left off in his first start of the year. He finished T4 at The Sentry, largely thanks to a hot putter (+5.9 SG: Putting). He had a similarly strong outing on the greens at the Wyndham Championship where he finished in a tie for second.
He’s always been very solid from tee to green and has quietly improved his putting after spending some time on the Korn Ferry Tour. He had been a significantly below average putter over the last five years, but per Datagolf, he's now an average putter after moving to the broomstick.
I love his form and the fact that he finished T12 at this event last year.
Cameron Davis Outright +5000 (BetMGM)
Bet $20 to pay $1,020
Even though he let us down at The Sentry last week, I’m not overly concerned. After a slow start on Thursday at Kapalua, it’s really hard to gain any ground given how many birdies there are on that course. Even with that result, he still has top-10 finishes in six of his last 10 starts worldwide.
Davis is a long hitter off the tee but has often played his best on shorter courses. He’s excelled at the comp courses (Harbour Town, Colonial CC), putts his best on bermuda greens and has finished T31 or better at this event in each of the last five years.
I like the idea of buying low on him here because his odds would be much shorter if he had played well last week.
Bet Byeong Hun An & Cameron Davis with the latest BetMGM bonus code.
Andrew Putnam Outright +5000 (Caesars)
Bet $20 to pay $1,020
I’m curious to see if Putnam’s odds slide a bit throughout the week. He’s rarely a popular bet in the outright market and is coming off of a poor showing at The Sentry. I will likely wait until Wednesday to make my bet on him in hoping to catch some better odds.
While Putnam’s T40 finish last week didn’t make any headlines, he was 15-under par on the weekend. He should have momentum heading into this week, which sets up much better for him from a statistical perspective.
Bet Andrew Putnam with the latest Caesars bonus code.
His strengths are driving accuracy, approach play and putting. That trio tends to strong play around these parts, so it’s no surprise that he has two top-five finishes here in the last five years.
Eric Cole Top 10 +375 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $95
Cole was on my short list of potential outright bets this week. His odds cratered quickly on Monday, so I am going to settle for a top-10 bet instead.
Everyone was surprised when he was awarded with the Rookie of the Year Award last week, but it’s hard to say that he didn’t deserve it. He’s a great story, and even more, he’s coming off of a truly special year.
In his first appearance at The Sentry, he finished in a tie for 14th this past weekend. He’s shown an ability to play well on all types of courses, but shorter par-70 courses like Waialae are where he should really shine. He nearly won the Honda Classic last spring and made the cut here in his debut. He’s in great form as he has finished in the top 10 in four of his last six starts, so hopefully he can get one more for us.
Brendon Todd Top 20 +230 (DraftKings)
Bet $20 to pay $66
My final bet of the week is for the Toddfather to finish in the top 20. He has always played his best golf on short par-70 bermudagrass courses, and his biggest strengths throughout his career have been hitting fairways and making putts.
He has made big strides in his approach play, gaining at least two strokes with his irons in seven of his last 11 starts. He’s made the cut here in each of the last four years and enters this week playing some of the most consistent golf of his career.
Bet Brendon Todd with the latest DraftKings bonus code.
That’ll do it for the Sony Open. Good luck this week!
