Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii — our round 4 matchup pick and expert bet for Adam Svensson on Sunday.
With 30 players within six shots of the lead entering Sunday, it's still anyone's ballgame at this week's 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii.
My model didn't veer too far off course in believing that co-leader Keegan Bradley is the favorite at 14-under par. We will see if he can control his nerves since many are close to the lead, but the chasers can make his life uncomfortable.
Chris Kirk will look to win back-to-back titles when he starts four off the pace. His ball-striking has been magnificent after gaining 2.4 more shots combined off-the-tee and on approach over the second-ranked player in this field.
My money would be on either Bradley or Kirk getting the job done if push came to shove, but there are deeper shots out there in Austin Eckroat or even some of the nine-under golfers who still have an outside shot if Bradley falters early.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Sony Open in Hawaii Round 4 Matchup Pick
Adam Svensson -120 over Andrew Putnam (bet365)
Continuing down this path might be slightly aggressive since I already have a top-20 bet on Adam Svensson at +260. That equates to virtually the same dependency twice on a golfer who needed a miracle miss from Joel Dahmen on Friday to even get himself into the weekend.
That is not necessarily the best way to look at things since value is the only name of the game when trying to build a bankroll. However, it is worth noting that the wager barely did enough to crack the three-percent threshold I use before recommending a play here at Action Network. We see that with the 3.08% edge I had for the final-round.
There's 54.55% implied probability at -120 versus the 57.63% chance my model derived for the bet.
A lot of the shift in my model for why this is generating an edge stemmed directly from Andrew Putnam overachieving in my sheet. The American landed as one of only two golfers (Ryo Hisatsune) to outperform his ball-striking on the leaderboard by at least 20 spots all three days.
I don't want to necessarily overreact to that statement since his top-10 grade for expected putting has come to fruition. A quality putter shouldn't get negatively affected twice for doing what my sheet believed was possible all week, although we can't ignore his troubling iron trends that rank him 71st out of 82 players on approach.
I will view Putnam's shift from a top-25 pre-tournament option to one who landed outside the top 35 entering round three as troubling since his 31st-place result on the leaderboard should have theoretically improved his stock. That is something that has happened with Svensson, who moved from 11th to inside the top five after ranking 22nd over three days.
I will take the 3%+ advantage here to try and swing a two-for-one day if Svensson can continue his scorching pace from Saturday.
