Here's everything you need to know about 2024 The American Express Best Bets for the PGA Tour's third event of 2024 in La Quinta, California.
Check out our Action Network golf best bets for The American Express, including picks for Justin Thomas, Chris Kirk, Taylor Montgomery, Adam Schenk and more as we go through our 2024 The American Express Best Bets.
2024 The American Express Best Bets
Jason Sobel: Taylor Montgomery +6000 (FanDuel)
Montgomery's first-round tee time: 11:30 a.m. ET
This is less about Montgomery specifically and more about the range in which I want to target outrights at The American Express, which includes those shorter than Chris Kirk (200/1) or Grayson Murray (400/1) the past two weeks but outside the top tier of this board.
One year ago, Taylor Montgomery was in the midst of a dream start to his rookie season that included a solo fifth-place finish at this event. His season didn’t end the way it started, as Montgomery struggled with his irons throughout the summer and fall months, but there’s reason for optimism moving forward.
At the Sony Open last week, he ranked second in SG: Approach and was third in that category for the final round alone. For a guy who’s proven to be a very strong putter, we could be catching this combo at just the perfect time. This is hardly one of those no-doubt-about-it selections, but starting the card with a player at 60/1 should enable us to add more names to the outright portfolio, which is exactly how I’ll be attacking this tournament.
The likes of Andrew Putnam (65/1), Beau Hossler (90/1), Keith Mitchell (90/1) and maybe a few others offer some diversification at longer odds as well.
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Spencer Aguiar: Chris Kirk -120 Over Shane Lowry (bet365)
Kirk's first-round tee time: 12:58 p.m. ET
You can find this wager as low as -120 out there in the space for Chris Kirk to beat Shane Lowry, but I can guarantee that this number is going to get blown away before Thursday.
Some books made an initial mistake when copying DraftKings' DFS pricing on the Irishman. I tried to give Lowry the benefit of the doubt with his form over in Europe when constructing different portions of my model, but his statistical profile was too challenging to ignore.
Lowry placed outside the top 100 for Weighted Scoring because of his inadequate return when diving into his Birdie or Better Rate, and there were additional red flags when looking into his negative trajectory in my sheet for how he matches up with this three-course rotation.
The fade potential was there when highlighting those factors, and Kirk was one of only seven golfers who graded among the top 40 in all of the metrics I weighed this week. My guess is that this line closes more in the range of -150.
Nick Bretwisch: Adam Schenk Top 40 +120 (BetMGM | Ties Paid in Full)
Schenk's first-round tee time: 12:47 p.m. ET
Adam Schenk grades as one of the higher upside/safety combinations in my numbers for the week as he is one of the top ball-strikers in the event and someone who has plenty of length to gouge these par-5s. In addition to the ball-striking, Schenk is one of the better putters in the event and should have no issues keeping the pace if this is indeed another “… putting contest.”
After coming off of a monster 2023 and making three times his best prior earnings on the PGA Tour, Schenk should have no problem scoring along with some of the best to tee it up in 2024. I have this number proper at -110.
Matt Gannon: Justin Thomas Top 20 +210 (FanDuel)
Thomas' first-round tee time: 1:31 p.m. ET
Don't look now, but JT has finished in the top five in his last three starts! He was third at the Hero World Challenge, fourth at the Nedbank Golf Challenge and fifth at the Fortinet Championship. Don't get me wrong, these are not a murderers row of golf tournaments, but neither is The American Express.
If you have been following Justin Thomas on social media, he has been absolutely grinding and seems really determined to get back to his old ways. By no means am I declaring JT to be back, but this is a great event for him to contend in. When Thomas is at his best, his wedges are second to none. This is an event where he will have a wedge in his hand a lot and can take advantage of that opportunity.
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2024 The American Express Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Sungjae Im
- Spencer Aguiar: Tony Finau
- Nick Bretwisch: Tom Kim
- Matt Gannon: Xander Schauffele
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Beau Hossler
- Aguiar: Si Woo Kim
- Bretwisch: Taylor Pendrith
- Gannon: Carson Young
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Biggest Bust
- Sobel: Chris Kirk
- Aguiar: Shane Lowry
- Bretwisch: Taylor Montgomery
- Gannon: Scottie Scheffler
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Cameron Champ
- Aguiar: Tony Finau
- Bretwisch: Justin Thomas
- Gannon: Billy Horschel
Trend That Guides Your 2024 The American Express Betting Strategy
Sobel: Odds for those players toward the bottom of the board can vary greatly between books, but golfodds.com lists Kirk as being a 200/1 pre-tournament outright and Murray at 400/1.
All of which should lead to another pattern at this week’s American Express and beyond.
Expect the public to collectively chase these longshots by trying to cash the next lottery ticket – not that it works that way, of course.
I can appreciate a “things always happen in threes” idea or a more tactful “the PGA Tour is more wide open these days” approach, but neither of the previous two outcomes should serve as a predictor for this week’s result.
In fact, if you’re playing the percentages, logic might suggest that there’s less of a chance of yet another longshot winner, but again, there’s zero connection from one event to the next, other than perhaps a few more sleepers feeling a bit more emboldened.
That said, there’s reason to fade the studs this week at what Jon Rahm once lamented as a “putting contest” (before winning it, of course). We should be surprised at this stellar field but can question the motivation of stars who are just getting their feet wet early in the season.
While I won’t chase guys with bigger numbers just because they cashed the past few weeks, I do think this one lends itself to another potential winner from outside the top tier.
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Aguiar: I would be lying if I didn't encounter some trepidation with this event from a modeling perspective because of its volatility. The field must take on a three-course rotation between Thursday and Saturday, highlighted by an abnormal 54-hole cut and pro-am nature that will turn rounds into an all-day affair.
Those answers are challenging enough when you consider it difficult on an average week to handicap only one venue. However, I've always found simplifying the process helps when you emphasize parallels between multi-course setups.
I used short par-72 courses with easy scoring conditions since all three courses fit that parameter. It is worth noting that each venue provides its own nuance, but one of the additional corollary trends originates from the ease of scoring on their four par-5s. Golfers who have demonstrated an edge on those holes have typically been the ones who have catapulted themselves up the leaderboard, and golfers also need to handle the marginally more difficult Stadium Course where seven holes have water in play.
Finding the fairway off the tee helps to produce one of the highest Birdie or Better Rates on Tour annually, and strength with an iron in hand can help set up some birdie opportunities on pure putting surfaces.
Gannon: Year in year out, The American Express tends to be one the most difficult events to predict. That boils down to the golfers playing on three separate courses, having a wedge into almost every hole and trying to make the most 20-foot putts. Although putting is one of the more unpredictable statistics, we can target golfers who putt the ball well here on a yearly basis or putt it well on similar grass types.
Also, I am taking a look at golfers with strong recent ball-striking numbers who have hit it well at this event in the past, and Carson Young is my longshot selection for that exact reason. He is enters this event with solid ball-striking form and gained 3.2 strokes ball-striking in this event last year.
I am also putting an extra emphasis on Proximity from 75-125 Yards. As mentioned above, these players will have an above average amount of approach shots from this distance.
