I will save you the time by not picking a golfer at the top of the odds board in this event. Surely, these top few players are the best in the world and have a great chance to play well in this event.
However, One and Done is about strategy, and burning one of your top horses at one of the most wide open tournaments and lowest paying prize pools is a bad idea.
2024 The American Express One and Done Picks
Sam Burns +3300
Although Sam Burns is near the top of the odds board, there is no "real" spot for which to save him. Any time we are in a bonafide putting contest, Sam Burns is live. His ball-striking is hit or miss on a weekly basis, but in his lone trip here, Burns gained three strokes to the field in ball-striking. That was one of four events the entire year that Burns gained strokes in all four categories.
If we are getting Sam Burns in prime tee-to-green position, we know the putter will be second to none. Sam Burns has quickly became an "annual win" guy, and I believe he can get his 2024 started solid with a high finish at The American Express.
Chris Kirk +4500
There is a chance that everybody used Chris Kirk at the Sony Open last week. While he did not entirely let them down with a T18, he could finish even higher this week. Kirk is coming off the single best ball-striking week of his career last week as he gained 11.9 strokes to the field, which is an astronomical number.
He now heads to the desert where he finished third last year and knows he can find success. Kirk's swing is in too strong of form to let him down. It is so consistent, and we can take advantage of it.
The only question mark is his putter, which let him down at the Sony Open. If Kirk is used up by a majority of your pool, run him out this week.
Adam Schenk +9000
The volatility of The American Express is like no other. We are looking to pick a straw out of a hat in an event where professional golfers are all given 50+ opportunities to hit a golf shot from 100-150 yards and try to make birdie. This is as cut and dry of a birdie fest as it gets.
With that being said, some golfers rise to the occasion in fields like this. These events narrow the path for golfers down the odds boards as the best players in the field just don't have the ball striking opportunities to separate themselves.
Adam Schenk lives for these events because he gets hot in spurts, and consequently, I am buying him early.
If you are in the betting and content circles, you will hear the name J.T. Poston a ton this week and rightfully so. Poston is a great look this week, but everything JT Poston does well, Schenk does the same. The only difference at the moment is that Poston has played more golf of late.
Just a few short months ago, Schenk was uber popular in plenty of events and finished in the top 10 at East Lake. Just like DFS, you want to get different in One and Done. Let's ride with the less popular version of Poston with a very similar ceiling.
Alexander Bjork +25000
Over the last 36 rounds, there are only four golfers gaining over a stroke to the field on approach. You could imagine the names: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and… Alexander Bjork?
Now, these stats are across all tours, which clearly includes the DP World Tour where Bjork played before this season. Nonetheless, Bjork is elite with his short irons and wedges. Being a DP World Tour backer myself, we saw Bjork in contention at nearly every course in Europe where hitting wedge shots and putting were key, and that is exactly what we have on tap at The American Express.
If you are looking for a player to get super different for The American Express One and Done, Bjork is your guy.
