Golf is back and headed to the Kapalua Plantation Course in Lahaina, Hawaii.
I always find Kapalua to be an extremely interesting course from a scoring versus statistical perspective. There's really no way you can look at past iterations of this contest and not immediately notice that 69 of 76 players have finished at 10-under par or better over the past two years. Part of that stems from a wide-open facility that has featured no wind. Still, for as straightforward as this track is for distance, accuracy and GIR percentage, Kapalua possesses more scrambling and three-putt avoidance than most birdie shootouts.
That is likely one of the main reasons why a non-American has won this event 11 times since 2002. This venue accentuates particular factors that correlate well with scrambling when diving into the increase players receive with their irons from both under 100 yards and over 200 yards. So, if a golfer can produce birdie looks when using a short iron and control their putter on a surface that is meant to be pure but slow, their chances of walking out of Hawaii with the first title of the year will take a massive spike in expectation.
Let's highlight who some of those players may be and see if we can find an edge to start 2024 with a bang.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
The Sentry Outright Picks
I take an aggregated total every Monday from a handful of books to form a median outright price in the space. None of that suggests you wouldn't have been able to find better if you shopped around, but I will say that this week's output yielded a very specific return since it was constructed on Saturday night — before most shops that are used in my sheet had odds listed.
We did have particular golfers — such as Tyrrell Hatton and Matthew Fitzpatrick — who were listed at 25/1 at the reduced number of shops I used Saturday, but who got to 30/1 on Monday morning when more shops entered the market.
For that reason, I don't think the projected square versus sharp movement will be as strong this week for those trying to figure out potential DFS value. Let's dive into some of the other shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets that I've talked about all week on The Gimme and Links + Locks.
What Golfers Have Experienced The Biggest Market Moves?
We will stick with these five for the sake of the article.
I believe the Justin Rose movement is more fluff than anything since many of the sharper books have drifted him out to over 100/1. He's 35th in my model for strokes gained total and 31st for weighted scoring, which doesn't exactly scream the phrase "win equity".
While I don't necessarily think Byeong Hun An is going to win, the upside metrics I built into my model were pronounced. Hun An may inevitably have been better suited if this were a more challenging tournament than a 30-under-par shootout. Still, the driving acumen likely possessed value in the placement market before these significant shifts in price. You can do much worse than his $6,800 price tag on DraftKings in DFS contests if you are looking for a flier with upside, but I would advise that it comes with some risk after not seeing him in action for months.
If I could redo my card and add a name, it'd likely be Jordan Spieth, when he opened at 26/1. That decline in price has been steady because of all the Augusta National comparisons that are getting thrown around in the industry, which my model also noticed when looking into the heightened nature of strokes gained around the green, scrambling and three-putt avoidance.
The best version of Spieth landed in the winner's circle at Kapalua when his irons were clicking. The worst of him has seen an average of -2.75 shots with that facet of his game over the past two years. You have to at least be marginally concerned with the iron form, but upside markets allow that boom-or-bust nature to be realized.
Collin Morikawa will generate a win this week for bettors if he can get across the finish line. He is on more tickets than anyone else.
This feels like a situation where Morikawa has a high floor, but I question the upside for these going rates. It doesn't mean he won't win, but I would have wanted over 20/1.
And to wrap this entire thing up, we have the curious case of Scottie Scheffler and his putter. This data is courtesy of RickRunGood, but only one golfer gained over 100 strokes tee-to-green last year. Naturally, it was Scheffler, who did it with a staggering total of 186.05. If putting guru Phil Kenyon has helped Scheffler find anything on the greens to begin 2024, it could be a long season for the others on the PGA Tour.
Where Did My Money Land?
Scottie Scheffler 6.5/1
There are always a ton of unknowns when the season starts. I think that is one of the reasons why people will flock away from backing a 6.5/1 golfer, but we have been a Scheffler putter away for a whole season now from him winning pretty much every tournament he's entered.
My model did uncover a 33-spot improvement on these slow Bermuda greens versus his baseline if we are looking for the potential of him spiking with the flat stick.
If all we need is a re-found touch on the greens for Scheffler to get back to his winning ways, I'm not sure we're going to get a better chance for him to unleash that potential.
Tommy Fleetwood 35/1
There was such a minor deviation in expectation throughout my sheet between Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton that I landed in this spot where there really was little difference to be found in value between any of the top names.
I decided to go with Fleetwood because of his first-place rank when combining scrambling, around-the-green and three-putt avoidance, but I wouldn't talk anyone out of either route. The more I have built numbers out for contests like OAD, the more I have wanted to go with an option like Hatton.
Top-Two Projected Win Equity Choices In My Model![]()
Best Values To Consider Under 70/1
