The PGA TOUR returns to a calendar-based season for 2024 with The Sentry at The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort kicking off the campaign. Kapalua Resort is a par-73, 7,596 yard track designed by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw that features bermudagrass greens and rewards strong putters.
Find my 2024 The Sentry first-round leader picks below.
2024 The Sentry First-Round Leader Picks
Tommy Fleetwood +3000 (bet365 | 0.5 Units)
First-Round Tee Time: 2:21 p.m. ET
As is always my strategy for targeting first-round leaders, I'm targeting golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the day progresses.
The earlier you tee off, the more soft greens you face that are much more receptive to your shots. The one objection to this general rule of thumb is when there is an expected weather change between the first first and second waves, but that will not be the case on Thursday.
In fact, the second wave will have to deal with an increase in wind as the only expected weather change in the first round.
That brings us to Tommy Fleetwood, who tees off in the ninth of the 20 scheduled groupings on Thursday. After all these years, Fleetwood is still chasing his first win on the PGA Tour, but that does not mean he has not had success in the first round.
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We saw Fleetwood hold a first-round lead in last season's Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club, and at 30/1, it is worth taking a 0.5-unit flyer on him to do so once again this week. That number is available at bet365, and there's good value at 30/1 considering that it is two-dollars longer than the rest of the market.
I mentioned in the intro that putting is the biggest key to success at Kapalua Resort, which will benefit Fleetwood greatly. Fleetwood was one of the elite putters on Tour last season, when he finished 14th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
Fleetwood's putter was on fire to end last season as he gained True Strokes Putting in 12 of his final 13 Tour events. The flatstick was the main reason he put together seven top-10 finishes over that stretch.
Finally, he fares well on Bermudagrass, which is the putting surface this week. Fleetwood has gained True Strokes Putting in each of his past two tournaments contested on Bermudagrass greens, which were the Tour Championship and FedEx St. Jude Championship.
He finished T6 and T3, respectively, in those events.
Sepp Straka +5000 (BetRivers | 0.25 Units)
First-Round Tee Time: 1:33 p.m. ET
Sepp Straka is another golfer worth a FRL flyer on Thursday. The most important aspect of this play is the value in it being 50/1, which is available at BetRivers.
There is an extreme market inefficiency at that price, with every other book offering a line that is around 35/1 or 40/1 at the time of writing. So, is Straka a viable candidate to back with this inefficiency in mind?
I certainly believe so.
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First, he has the built-in advantage of going off with the fifth grouping in the first round. Second, Straka is a strong putter.
He finished well above average in Strokes Gained: Putting on TOUR last season, and particularly ended the season on fire in terms of his play on the greens. Straka turned his entire season around with his win at the John Deere Classic, an event in which he gained a whopping 1.54 True Strokes Putting and flirted with a final-round 59.
If you include the two DP World Tour events and this winter's Hero World Challenge, Straka has gained True Strokes Putting in eight of his past nine tournaments. He boasts three top-two finishes over that span.
