2024 The Sentry Picks, Odds: Picks for Tony Finau, Corey Conners

2024 The Sentry Picks, Odds

Here's everything you need to know about The Sentry — our expert picks and mega guide for the PGA Tour's first event of 2024.

Something just feels right about the festivities at Kapalua not only kicking off the calendar year in professional golf, but also the PGA Tour season itself, as the Tour finally starts with a blank slate instead of a trail of breadcrumbs from the fall portion of the erstwhile wraparound.

It also feels right that we’ve lost the “Tournament of Champions” from The Sentry's title. It was a bit awkward a few years ago when more players were allowed into the field after the COVID-shortened season, then Harris English won the title, despite literally not being a champion from the previous year.

All of that said, there was a time not long ago when holding a professional golf tournament just a few miles down the road from Lahaina would’ve been considered heartless after wildfires led to a death toll in the triple-digits, billions of dollars in damages and the destruction of one of the world’s truly beautiful locations.

That the tourney remained here, though, should be a testament to those who worked to keep it in the face of such adversity, and I’d imagine that a charitable undercurrent to the week will be front and center — doing more good than we might’ve thought possible a few months ago.

Now labeled a signature event on the PGA Tour schedule, The Sentry is one of eight such signature tournaments where a limited field actually means adding more players to the mix, which is why there will be a record 59 golfers teeing it up this week.

That does not, however, include the reigning champion, as The Sentry is one of three events in the first seven that was claimed by Jon Rahm, who of course left the PGA Tour to join LIV Golf last month.

Some will argue that without Rahm, something is missing, as a tourney without its superstar champion defending the title feels a bit empty. Others will contend that the show must go on, pointing out that plenty of big names, from Tiger Woods to Phil Mickelson to Rory McIlroy, have routinely skipped this one over the years.

I know social media doesn’t approve of riding fences, but you’re both right.

We can pine for Rahm’s name on the leaderboard this week while simultaneously understanding that there are enough stars to make us forget about him by week’s end.

Before we get to the picks, a few reminders about what we’ll see this week. The Plantation Course at Kapalua is an unconventional par-73 with three par-3s and four par-5s.

Anyone with designs on winning will also have to go ultra low, as only once in the last nine years has a winner failed to post at least 20-under, and if the trade winds don’t blow at all, it could be much lower, as we saw the top three players on the board post a combined 99-under just two years ago.

This is also the event where we say each year that the trick might be picking those who have been grinding on the practice range over the holidays versus those who have kept busy polishing off some Christmas cookies. Good luck trying to identify who’s who as we get into the selections for the season opener, starting with a player who surprised some by sticking around.

2024 The Sentry Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Tony Finau (+3300)

Amid rampant rumors that he already had one foot out the door to LIV Golf, Tony Finau announced last month that he would not be entering the transfer portal while going full Wolf of Wall Street mode. “You know what? I’m not leaving. I’m not f—ing leaving! The show goes on! This is my home. They’re gonna need a f—ing wrecking ball to take me out of here.”

(Okay, so Big Tone left out the naughty words, but you get the point.)

As much as I love a good narrative selection, though, this one is about more than the romantic notion of a player staying loyal to the PGA Tour and immediately reaping the benefits.

First things first: As will become a growing pattern in the not-so-brave new world of more short-field events, I’ll gladly fade the top of the board at exceedingly shorter prices. If Scottie Scheffler at +600 or Viktor Hovland at +800 wins this week — and they certainly could — I’m sure there will be plenty of bettors gloating about having them on their card, but I won’t be one of ‘em, unless a slow start offers some live value.

In a 59-player field, opting for those in the next tier at a much more palatable number makes better sense — and should be a strategy that repeats over the next eight months.

As for why to take Finau over those with similar odds, I like that he owns two previous top-10 finishes (in four career starts) at this event, including a T7 last year. Plus, he was T4 at the 20-man Hero World Challenge at the beginning of December, which suggests a semblance of form entering a week when there aren’t too many obvious suggestions.

While the status quo narrative doesn’t sway me too much, the not-so-indirect impact of having the weight of that decision lifted from his shoulders should only help.

Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Corey Conners (+7500)

I’m going to warn you right now: You’re going to see Corey Conners’ name in my weekly previews an awful lot this year. I’ll expound on exactly what I like about the Canadian in my annual column on players making The Leap, which can be found this week, but it’s no secret what we’ve come to expect from the two-time winner in recent years.

Last season, Conners impressed as he ranked 11^th in SG: Off the Tee and 21^st on Approach, but he also was just 135^th Around the Green and 128^th Putting; the previous season, he was fifth Off the Tee and 16^th on Approaches, yet 131^st around the greens and 136^th on them; and the season before that, he went eighth, ninth, 169^th and 112^th in those categories.

Perhaps it’s too pie-in-the-sky thinking to believe Conners will suddenly figure out his wedges and putter, but I do think that a world-class ball-striker competing in more limited fields should take better advantage of a few spike weeks with those clubs and find the winner’s circle at something bigger than the Valero Texas Open.

His track record at Kapalua isn’t anything special, but at this number I’m willing to swing and miss on Conners in a few signature events if it eventually means hitting one out of the park.

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Xander Schauffele (+1600)

This is the part in my annual Sentry previews where I outline the two distinct options available for One and Done pools. (Shameless self-promotion: I’ll be posting my annual piece on OAD possibilities for every tournament before the first one begins this week.)

You can either choose a superstar, knowing his win equity is greater in a shortened field and hoping to start off the year with a bang, or you can take a lower-owned player further down the list, knowing that this one comes with no cut and a guaranteed paycheck.

Of course, as I’ve outlined already, this scenario is hardly unique to The Sentry anymore. There are going to be more of these limited-field events, but the schedule will also consolidate the best of the best playing against each other more often, which perhaps suggests we’d be smarter to simply chase that heightened win equity and select the bigger names at these tournaments.

I’m not sure we can refer to Xander Schauffele as the King of Limited Fields anymore, but he’s certainly made his mark at this one, with a win, a runner-up and another top-five finish in six career starts. I’d expect him to be a popular OAD play – and if his number stays at 16/1, he also makes sense as an outright selection.

Sungjae Im (+3000)

As more players leave for LIV Golf, the door should be open for those who stayed to find greater success. That isn’t to suggest that Sungjae Im wasn’t already a big-time player, but for a guy with two wins and five runner-up finishes, the exodus could mean one fewer competitor finishing in front of him, which in turn could lead to more wins and better status and all the spoils that come with such results.

At this event, he’s never finished worse than 13^th and has a top-five finish on his resume. For those who are teetering between using a superstar and going more down the list, Im could represent a nice compromise.

Camilo Villegas (+15000)

It’s been a long December, but there’s reason to believe that this year could be better than the last for Camilo Villegas. When last we saw him, he was busy dominating for a few weeks during the fall portion of the schedule, and while form can thaw quickly during the holidays, a return to Kapalua for the first time in almost a decade should be enough to keep those embers burning.

Even if you don’t love him for OADs, he could be a solid top-10/20 or DFS play.

Placement Market Bets

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Russell Henley (+750 for Top-five Finish)

If I can list Corey Conners for an outright, then I can similarly list his brother-in-ball-striking Russell Henley for a top-five finish. Once again, I’m willing to take a chance that a player who hits a ton of fairways and is long enough off the tee can somehow turn his putter into a magic wand for the week.

He’s only finished better than 17^th in one of his four previous starts here, but that was a T3 that proved he can indeed play his best golf here.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Sahith Theegala (+425 for Top-10 Finish)

No, I didn’t list Sahith Theegala for an outright play above, and yes, this section is all about his opportunity to cash top-10 tickets, but I’m still going to mention that I thought his days of being a 75/1 outright were over, so grab it while you can.

That’s a massive number for a player who “finally” won this past fall and should enter the new season brimming with confidence.

A top-10 finish this week means only being in the top 17 percent of the field, which suggests there’s some nice value on Theegala.

Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Adam Schenk (+240 for Top-20 Finish)

Once again, another theme for the signature events, not just this week: Unless you like really short prices, you’ll have to look down the board for top-20 plays in these limited fields. Adam Schenk came dangerously close to winning on a few occasions last season and has shown he’s not afraid to compete with the big boys.

With a Masters invitation already in his back pocket and on the verge of riding the rich-get-richer wave in coming months, expect him to continue becoming more accustomed to not only playing in these fields — but contending.

DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

Scottie Scheffler (DK $11,000)

While I can’t get too excited about Scottie Scheffler at 6/1 odds to win outright, he makes a ton of sense at the top of DFS lineups, with plenty of strong low-cost options in a field essentially devoid of the so-called “scrubs” (don’t shoot the messenger!) in the $6,000 salary spots.

Not only does Scheffler own one of the highest ceilings in the professional game, but his floor also remains unmatched. It’s tough to believe he’ll finish much worse than his T7 from a year ago.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Ludvig Aberg (DK $8,700)

Hey, it’s been over a month since the last official PGA Tour event, so we’re all a little out of midseason form. That’s the only way to explain this one, as Ludvig Aberg is appropriately priced in most books with the third-shortest outright odds in this week’s field – yes, he really is that good – and yet he owns just the 15^th-highest salary in DFS on DraftKings.

We can certainly ask “Why?” and try to figure out who made the pricing error, but it’s easier to say “Why not?” and just slide him into your lineup without questions.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

Akshay Bhatia (DK $6,200)

Prior to winning last summer’s Barracuda Championship, Akshay Bhatia made most of his money on tropical resort courses.

That’s not to suggest there are many similarities between the host venues in Puerto Rico (where he finished runner-up) and Mexico (where he was solo fourth) and this week at Kapalua, but perhaps it’s less about the physical characteristics of the courses and more about the laid-back vibe that comes with competing in such an atmosphere.

At just $200 above the minimum, I’ll take a chance on yet another young player who shouldn’t remain at current prices for much longer.

The Sentry Misc. Picks

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Eric Cole (+5000 for FRL)

Last year, Jon Rahm, Collin Morikawa and J.J. Spaun each held a share of the opening-round lead with matching scores of 9-under 64; two years ago, Rahm, Justin Thomas and Matt Jones set a new single-round scoring record on the weekend, each posting a 12-under 61.

The common denominator here is Rahm, but since we’ve already established that he won’t be involved at this one for a while, let’s go with a player who often popped in opening rounds last year while also playing the proverbial role of “not afraid to go low.”

As a rookie, Eric Cole led the PGA Tour in Rounds in the 60s, Below-Par Rounds and Total Birdies. Granted, much of that can be attributed to his insistence at rarely taking a week off, but a rank of 13^th in Round 1 scoring average (69.19) should also give us plenty of reason to like him on Thursdays.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Vincent Norrman (+12500)

It’s often said that we shouldn’t present a problem without also offering a solution, which largely summarizes how I feel about this category. Since I usually write these words on Sunday night/Monday morning, most books haven’t yet released head-to-head matchups. Sure, that makes it difficult to ascertain whom to list here, but I try to offer up a few similarly priced players I’d play my selection against.

In the case of Norrman – who’s helping my theme of undervalued youngsters – I’d play him against Byeong Hun An (coming off a suspension), Tom Hoge (perhaps overpriced after last year’s T3 finish) and Patrick Rodgers (I honestly had to look up how he even squeezed into this field).

Like his buddy Ludvig Aberg, Norrman also won on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour last season, suggesting even bigger and better things coming in this one.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Max Homa (+1400), Jordan Spieth (+2500), Rickie Fowler (+3500), Cam Davis (+6600) and Erik Van Rooyen (+12500)

Get ready to bet the PGA Tour in the Tar Heel State when North Carolina sports betting launches this year! NC residents will have access to some of the top sportsbooks like FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics, and bet365.