Let's dive into my 2024 TOUR Championship first-round leader predictions and everything you need to know — including my two Thursday FRL picks — for this week's PGA Tour event in Atlanta, Georgia.
The TOUR Championship returns to East Lake, which has hosted this event annually since 2004.
East Lake is a par-70, 7,490-yard track designed by Donald Ross that was recently renovated by Andrew Green. If that sounds familiar, it is because Green also renovated Ross’ Oak Hill Country Club for the 2023 PGA Championship.
With that in mind, East Lake will still reward approach play and putting, as usual. Each of the top four finishers here last year ranked in the top seven among the field in Strokes Gained: Putting, the only statistic or metric in which such a trend occurred.
Tony Sartori's TOUR Championship First-Round Leader Picks (FRL)
Xander Schauffele +280 (DraftKings | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 2:00 p.m. ET
I suspect that everyone and their mothers are going to be on Xander Schauffele over Scottie Scheffler this week in whichever market you are looking at, but there are so many more concerns with the world's No. 1 golfer than there are with Schauffele, especially when you look at the price gap between the two.
Scheffler has entered this tournament in the pole position each of the past two years, and he finished T6 and T2 in those two outings. Furthermore, Scottie's back was acting up last week at the BMW Championship en route to a T33 finish.
It was the first event since 2022 where he lost strokes on the approach. Therefore, with just a two-stroke gap between Scheffler and Schauffele, I just see way more value in Xander's number between the two most likely candidates to lead after Thursday's opening round.
Ludvig Aberg +4000 (DraftKings | 0.15 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 1:38 p.m. ET
The play on Schauffele is also a way to offer some protection and allow us to take a bigger swing down the odds board on Thursday. I think Scottie is way overvalued for the moment, which brings us to Ludvig Aberg, who is always one of the first guys I look at each week.
Many, including myself, view him as the safest bet to be golf's next great superstar. However, for right now, I think the FRL market is the extent to which I want to back him in what is his first TOUR Championship.
Aberg just finished runner-up at last week's BMW Championship, which marked his third runner-up performance over his past 16 events. He's still figuring out the closing aspect of being a champion on Tour when facing these heavy fields, which is why I trust the 24-year-old more on Thursday.
Skill-wise, Ludvig can be a low man in any round. So why not the first, given that he ranks 20th on Tour this season in Round 1 Scoring Average and will have 18 holes to make up his five-shot deficit to Scottie.
Here's my full betting card for the 2024 TOUR Championship, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks podcast:
- Collin Morikawa Outright Winner (+2800 at Caesars) – 0.3 Units
- Patrick Cantlay Outright Winner (+3500 at Caesars) – 0.3 Units
- Keegan Bradley Outright Winner (+4000 at Caesars) – 0.3 Units
- Sam Burns Outright Winner (+4500 at Caesars) – 0.3 Units
- Wyndham Clark Top 5 (+290 at FanDuel) – 0.24 Units
- Chris Kirk Top 10 (+900 at DraftKings) – 0.23 Units
- Xander Schauffele FRL (+280 at DraftKings) – 0.15 Units
- Ludvig Aberg FRL (+4000 at DraftKings) – 0.15 Units
- Hole in One (+450 at FanDuel) – 0.15 Units
