We are down to the final week of the PGA Tour season. It hasn’t been a great year for predictions in this weekly tour betting preview, but we'll try to go out with a bang. We have $120 left in the bankroll, so we’ll fire the rest this week at the Tour Championship.
If you are new to golf betting, this week is much different than most we see on the PGA Tour.
For starters, there are only 30 golfers in the field. On top of that, starting strokes are awarded based on where golfers currently sit in the FedExCup standings.
Scottie Scheffler will start at -10, Xander Schauffele at -8, Hideki Matsuyama at -7, and so on until the bottom five in the standings, who will start at even par.
I like betting the shadow leaderboard (without starting strokes) more at this event, but the odds for that market weren’t out at the time of writing this article.
The East Lake Golf Club course will have a different look this year, as it has undergone a restoration since last year's Tour Championship. It was lengthened, the fairways and greens were re-shaped and many bunkers have been moved. The Atlanta course is now 7,490 yards, making it one of the longest on the PGA Tour, and it’s only a par-71. The fairways here have been tough to hit over the years, while hitting the greens in regulation from the rough has been difficult.
Despite the changes, I expect the good total drivers to have an advantage this week. Iron play is always important, especially at East Lake. A tidy short game is also needed, as this should play very difficult compared to most courses.
Let’s dive into the picks.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: -$100
- Current bankroll: $120
2024 Tour Championship Predictions
Xander Schauffele
Outright +230 (FanDuel): $40 to pay $132
Even though he’s starting two shots behind Scottie Scheffler, my money is on Schauffele this week.
For starters, he’s the most complete player on the PGA Tour. He’s played in 20 events this season and has finished in the top 10 on 14 occasions. If you take out the starting strokes and look at the shadow leaderboard, he’s finished first, T6, T3, first, and T2 at this event over the last five years.
Meanwhile, Scheffler is coming off a rare week where he lost strokes tee to green. He was visibly frustrated all week in Colorado. Additionally, he’s finished T13 or worse on the shadow leaderboard in each of the last three years at East Lake.
The way I see it, the two-shot deficit is just allowing us to grab better odds.
Viktor Hovland
Top 5 +500 (Caesars): $40 to pay $240
Hovland won the Tour Championship last year, which led to some huge expectations in 2024. Many picked him to win at least one major, but that never came to fruition.
His ball striking hasn't been as crisp this year and his short game has let him down. However, he’s showing some signs of life in the playoffs.
He gained 8.6 strokes ball striking at the FedEx St. Jude Championship (T2) and 4.4 strokes ball striking at the BMW Championship (T26).
We know he can have splash weeks with the putter and despite a shaky short game, he tends to play difficult courses very well.
Given the fact that he’s starting at -2, he has some juicy odds to finish in the top five.
Tommy Fleetwood
Top 10 +190 (DraftKings): $40 to pay $116
Fleetwood is on my short list of golfers to win the shadow leaderboard.
His finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship (T22) doesn’t look that impressive, but he gained a career-high 9.8 strokes tee to green. He backed it up with a T5 finish at the BMW Championship. Don’t forget, he also won the silver medal at the Olympics a few weeks ago.
His game is clearly in good shape at the moment, and he’s a great fit for East Lake being a good total driver of the ball and without a weakness in his game.
He finished T9 on the Tour Championship shadow leaderboard last year. He does have some ground to make up though, as he’s starting at -1.
