2024 Tour Championship Round 4 DFS Picks
Here are all the players who graded out as having a positive value for Round 4 when comparing DraftKings' price to my 'Head-to-Head Totals' and DraftKings' price to 'Projected Scoring' after using baseline short-game metrics to recalculate a leaderboard.
The two caveats to this list are that every player had to be a top-15 scorer in my recalculated model. That also included any player within a margin of error (if they possessed a top-five scoring total in my sheet). If someone didn't fit those criteria marks and graded outside the top half of the field for "H2H Rank," their name got removed from within the filter.
I would varying takes on these players than others, but that group will make up a substantial percentage of my Sunday player pool.
We don't have time to discuss each of those names, but here is a more in-depth look at why you might be able to find some reduced totals further down this board.
Buy: Russell Henley ($7,000), Sungjae Im ($7,500)
One area where I run data on the back end of my model for DFS purposes is to see how a golfer is grading against the head-to-head market at sportsbooks. That doesn't mean my model will take movement or pricing at face value, but it does suggest where the market is moving for or against a particular player. That will hold merit when I directly compare those totals to how my sheet grades players and their opponents.
For example, a golfer who sees negative movement against a sub-par player in my model will start receiving negative marks in my data, whereas a player who sees positive movement against a name my model liked will start obtaining a boost in their profile when I add that calculated weight into the mix.
When we dive deeper into all these profiles, Russell Henley optimizes that answer to the core. Not only did Henley grade as a value in all the areas I spoke about above when comparing his price tag to my totals, but we also got an overabundance of support for the American when reassembling the data to highlight where the market is moving in his matchups.
One of the big takeaways I want everyone to consider from that image is that we are getting some positive betting movement against four "underpriced" DraftKings players in round four, including on Wyndham Clark, who made the initial list of options after grading as one of my better targets on the board for Sunday.
Sungjae Im is holding steady in price against Henley, which has only helped his profile when we realize he is also dominating the movement portions of the market when looking into weaker options inside my model. Consider the duo a savvy 1A/1B salary-saving punch for those looking to pair Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa with options lower on the scale.
When I add that head-to-head movement weight to the pair, we see each jump into being top-10 players on the slate for the day, despite being priced outside the top 12. That is the type of value I'm always trying to pinpoint when the stats, movement and grades all show as top-notch marks.
