We will need a Xander Schauffele victory Sunday if we want to show a significant profit this week with our bankroll. My model was indifferent to that potential since it loved Scottie Scheffler and Tom Kim at the top of the board, but as is the case with most of these boards where Scheffler is at or near the lead, it does help to push value a little down the slate.
If I were to become invested in the event with any additional action, I don't hate the +350 route on Tom Kim since my math had him much closer to Scheffler. I do believe you are flying close to the sun by putting additional funds on the table against the hottest golfer since Tiger Woods, but most good wagers for any sport always have that form of trepidation attached to them when placing the ticket.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Travelers Championship Round 4 Matchup Pick
Austin Eckroat -115 Over Adam Hadwin (DraftKings)
I've talked a lot about not forcing action when the value isn't there during articles this week. It was always going to take something that passed the three percent threshold requirement in my model to jump back into an event that I do not love for all the reasons I have stressed during podcasts and articles. However, I do believe we have nearly a 20-point edge (-134 proper) for tomorrow's matchup between Austin Eckroat and Adam Hadwin.
I do want to note that my model didn't have this large of an edge pre-event because of my positive upside numbers for Hadwin, which saw him rank 26th in Weighted Strokes Gained Total and 21st for Driving Accuracy. All of that does give us a profile of a golfer who always had it within himself to pop in a similar fashion as his Saturday six-under 64 round. Still, the edge has come into play because of his overachieving within my model compared to the field.
Here are all the players who have overachieved by more than five spots on the leaderboard during all three rounds so far when taking their actual ball striking and baseline short game totals.
On the flip side of that answer, here are the golfers who have underachieved during all three rounds.
One of the things you may notice about that second list is that most of the "underachievers" have been neutral or worse with their ball striking and terrible with their putters. The two names that don't fit that bill are Tom Hoge and Eckroat, the two golfers in this field leading the event for ball striking.
Here is where the top 15 of my model would stand if every player was given their baseline short-game and actual ball striking marks to yield their score for the week.
While this wager isn't a perfect spot because of some of the pre-tournament information that liked Hadwin, I will gladly take a soft price on Eckroat over Hadwin since the market hasn't appropriately reacted to a golfer in Hadwin, who should be outside the top 40 of this leaderboard through three rounds.
