2024 U.S. Open Best Bets, Expert Picks, Fades & More
Via Getty Images/Action Network Design. Pictured: Min Woo Lee (left) and Richard Mansell (right).
Pinehurst No. 2 hosts the 2024 U.S. Open as Wyndham Clark looks to defend his crown after winning his first major championship last year at Los Angeles Country Club. Let's get into our 2024 U.S. Open best bets.
Spencer Aguiar, Nick Bretwisch, Matt Gannon and Tony Sartori have expert picks as 156 golfers will clash this week at Pinehurst No. 2.
The course is a 7,543-yard par-70 designed by Donald Ross originally in 1907 and most recently restored by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw from 2009-11. Find a full course preview for Pinehurst No. 2 here.
Here's everything you need to know, along with our 2024 U.S. Open best bets and expert picks for this week's major championship.
2024 U.S. Open Best Bets, Expert Picks
Spencer Aguiar: Min Woo Lee -114 Over Sepp Straka (BetRivers)
I had a very small discrepancy this week when trying to pinpoint a top matchup between Min Woo Lee over Sepp Straka and Christiaan Bezuidenhout over Adam Hadwin. You can view that as the 1A and 1B combination if trying to back both wagers, but I will use Lee over Straka as my pick for this article since I am all in on my stance with Lee.
As I always say with matchups, the true value comes from finding a "fade" candidate compared to finding a golfer to back. Despite my aggressive bets on Lee this week, that is relevant in this matchup because Straka grades as an enhanced commodity with his strong recent form.
I liked and backed Straka at the Memorial Tournament last week because of his recent top-10 upside, but the disproportionate number of shots from outside 175 yards hurt his profile more than most golfers.
Straka ranked 89th in my combination of Long Iron Proximity + Around the Green, 75th for Weighted Bogey Avoidance, 88th for Weighted Scoring and 74th for Expected Strokes Gained: Total at Pinehurst No. 2.
I don't know if we will necessarily get a missed cut from him. Still, the length of the PGA Championship caused a similar issue, which resulted in him posting his only finish outside the top 16 since the Valspar Championship in March, a result where he missed the weekend.
Nick Bretwisch: Richard Mansell Top 40 +400 (BetRivers)
Due to the disappearing placement markets in the PGA Tour's 70-man signature events, I’ve had to stay patient and take my shots in my favorite betting market, the top-40 market, in majors.
We cashed in on Jordan Smith at the PGA Championship and will go to another rising DP World Tour ball-striker, Richard Mansell, at Pinehurst.
Mansell’s putter leaves a lot to be desired and is likely the major reason he hasn’t won a tournament in five years, but he’s finished inside the top 25 in seven of his last nine DP World Tour events while ranking a semi-respectable 41st in 3-putt-avoidance (which is a massive improvement in his data from 2022 and 2023).
He’s one of the better drivers of the golf ball overseas at 28th in Driving Accuracy and 40th in Driving Distance. He also is a top-tier short-gamer who ranks 13th in SG: Around the Green and fifth in sand saves. I have this price closer to +350 and will take 50 points of value in the top-40 market anytime I can get it.
The caution here is the lack of data in PGA Tour events, but he’s made massive improvements in his ball-striking as a whole since missing the cut at Brookline in the 2022 US Open.
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Matt Gannon: Collin Morikawa Top 20 -120 (bet365)
Collin Morikawa to finish in the top 20 feels like an extremely safe option because he is playing amazing golf and trending in the right direction. He checks boxes across the board with his momentum throughout the bag and is hungry for another win.
I do not believe that this is the greatest golf course for him to lift another trophy on, but I do believe he will play well.
More than anything, I was extremely impressed by his preparation around the greens. He looked far more comfortable than most players around the greens and was willing to try a variety of shots.
I also loved the fact that he was playing golf around 9 a.m. ET on Monday after the letdown at the Memorial on Sunday night.
Tony Sartori: Sungjae Im Top 10 +650 (DraftKings)
Sungjae Im began the season with a tie for fifth at The Sentry (which is contested on another course where Coore and Crenshaw were involved in the design) and then fell off the radar for about three months. A missed cut at the Masters I think was the final straw for Im, as he immediately started to turn things around after that.
He went over to Korea to get his head and game right, winning a championship on that Tour before coming back to America and firing off three top-10 finishes over his next four tournaments.
Im’s game seems to be all the way back, and I don’t think the market has quite caught up yet with such a large return at +650 for him to finish in the top 10 once again.
2024 U.S. Open Expert Picks, Fades
Your Betting Strategy for the 2024 U.S. Open
Aguiar: Donald Ross is always known for these diabolically unique around-the-green complexes that often veer away from standard PGA Tour expectations. That will be no different here since the turtle-shell greens will repel shots entirely off the surface, sometimes up to 30 yards away from the hole.
All of that would be challenging on its own to try and traverse because of the complexity of the track, but there are also an excessive number of approach shots from 175+ yards into fiery fast greens that haven't received much rain. Golfers are already talking about how balls aren't holding the surface on their second shot.
Expect fast and firm!
Gannon: After walking this course for eight hours on Monday, it is quite literally like no other.
There are no around the green statistics to prepare these golfers for what they will face here. The only path to around the green success is setting a plan for the week and repping it as often as possible in the three days of prep.
Off the tee, I was unsure what to expect. I found out that Driving Distance trumps Driving Accuracy because the whispy bushes of wiregrass are far less penal than expected. At the base, they are extremely firm and simply act as a game of Plinko to golf balls.
I watched so many golfers hit wayward drives that only led to clean lies in the wash area. Obviously, there will be bad lies, but consistent distance will surely be worth the reward.
Sartori: Pinehurst No. 2 is a par-70, 7,543-yard track designed by Donald Ross that underwent a renovation by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw in 2010. The renovation added some of their tastes in terms of landscape, but the classic Ross elements of small greens that run out fast remain the core aspect of this course.
As is typically the case at Ross-designed courses, we are looking for accurate ball-strikers who can keep their ball on the green during on approach because getting up and down after missed greens in regulation will be a battle due to the dramatic undulations.
Favorites We’re Backing
- Aguiar: Rory McIlroy & Xander Schauffele (I like aggressively backing the top of the board against Scheffler.)
- Bretwisch: Rory McIlroy +1300
- Gannon: Rory McIlroy +1300
- Sartori: Viktor Hovland +1800
Mid-Tier Golfer to Back
- Aguiar: Hideki Matsuyama +5000
- Bretwisch: Tommy Fleetwood +4400
- Gannon: Sahith Theegala +5500
- Sartori: Matt Fitzpatrick +4500
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Best Long Shot
- Aguiar: Min Woo Lee +8000
- Bretwisch: Tony Finau +7500
- Gannon: Will Zalatoris 100-1
- Sartori: Sungjae Im 100-1
Biggest Bust
- Aguiar: Sepp Straka 100-1
- Bretwisch: Wyndham Clark +5500
- Gannon: Viktor Hovland +1800
- Sartori: Xander Schauffele +1300
Contrarian Player To Target
- Aguiar: Byeong-Hun An +9500 (He will be popular for the price but is nonetheless way too cheap for DFS)
- Bretwisch: Cameron Young +8000
- Gannon: Jon Rahm +3300
- Sartori: Tony Finau +6500
LIV Golfer To Target
- Aguiar: Brooks Koepka +2400
- Bretwisch: Brooks Koepka +2400
- Gannon: Cam Smith +4000
- Sartori: Bryson DeChambeau +2200
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