We have received extreme discrepancies on the leaderboard when analyzing my two-year projected "Baseline Putting + Around-The-Green" filter in my model.
Projected Leaderboard Using Baseline Putting + Around-The Green Stats Over Two Years
I talked a little pre-event about how Scottie Scheffler might not be as fluid as the market believes because of that negative trajectory he had provided for me with his putter on corollary green textures in the past. It seems likely that we are probably going to get a run up the board from the American over the next few days after he was able to slither his way into the weekend. However, options like Jordan Spieth and Tommy Fleetwood also joined the American as names to keep an eye on when you are constructing DFS lineups.
There are a lot of soft spots to take advantage of when we get a major championship because of the influx of action, so let's dive into a matchup that is surely going to massively shift before the first ball is struck on Saturday.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 U.S. Open Round 3 Predictions
Collin Morikawa -125 over Cameron Smith (Bet365)
One of the largest discrepancies we have seen in the market for the U.S. Open all week has been the difference between sharp versus square money on Cameron Smith. We could return to his pre-tournament bets and extend it through the opening two rounds to get the same answer, but the sharpest money has heavily faded him, while the public money has backed him in various iterations of the board.
I have likely landed somewhere in the middle and stayed out of this sharp versus square action since I didn't have massive interest in laying heavy juice against the 30-year-old. Smith's inferior driving and long-iron approach metrics made it hard to understand why bettors were wagering money on him to win the tournament. However, I never found myself aggressively trying to fade him in matchups either, since the Aussie was a positive trajectory mover for upside and produced top-10 expectations with his putter and around-the-green game.
All of that is fine, and we don't always need to take a stand, but Bet365 has lost some of the narrative here and overcorrected for a wager that was -165 heading into round two when the same bet was given over on FanDuel on Thursday evening.
My model shows Morikawa as one of the largest underachievers on the board. His 51st-place mark on the leaderboard landed him 18th for me when I gave him his projected 'Baseline Putting + Around The Green' data over a two-year sample. The metrics are going to be less crisp for Smith when you consider a lot of his LIV data will leave a ton to be desired, although we do see him as a negative ball-striker this week to the tune of minus-0.47 shots.
At some point, any stay away will become a number-grab when the market moves too much in the opposite direction, and I will oppose Smith's questionable driver and poor long-iron data when the market has told me all week that these two should not be in the same stratosphere in pricing.
