Pinehurst No. 2 hosts the third men's major championship, and this Donald Ross course presents a unique challenge.
Ross is always known for these unique around-the-green complexes that can veer away from standard expectations on the PGA Tour. The turtle-shell greens at Pinehurst No. 2 have the propensity to repel shots entirely off the surface, sometimes up to 30 yards away from the hole or into traps and tight lies that add to the headache of the construction.
There will be some unpredictable run-outs with a driver in hand as fast and firm conditions will naturally move shots into sandy areas or worse, into wire grass and gorse bushes in the sandy area. That means accuracy off the tee will be just as important as distance. Players will also hit a disproportionate number of shots from 175+ yards into extremely fast and firm greens.
I would say that is very standard for most U.S. Open tests, although last year's contest deviated a little away from the norm. This means Pinehurst No. 2 will accentuate varying nuances throughout the bag for those looking to make the cut. Find a full preview of Pinehurst No. 2, here.
Golfers will get exposed at this week's U.S. Open if they are struggling with any one facet of their game.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 U.S. Open Data-Driven Pick for Round 1
Wyndham Clark -115 over Sepp Straka (DraftKings/FanDuel)
I'll paraphrase this comment to keep it family-friendly, but someone told me last week that my in-tournament matchups are like watching two "dumpster fires" compete against one another to see who doesn't get completely engulfed in flames first.
There is some truth to that sentiment since the whole purpose of my head-to-head bets will always be to find the best fade candidates on the board when the market is too high on that golfer's chances. Oftentimes, that results in that player getting paired with someone I am going to be higher on for the week when shopping around — even if the golfer I bet on wouldn't be my natural first choice of a golfer I am eagerly looking to back.
I say all of that to express how this matchup on Thursday has one of the most contrasting ceiling/floor combinations I have seen in quite some time when looking at both golfers and their projected results.
I'd rather this be a straight "rush to the bottom of the leaderboard and scroll up situation" because those wagers have yielded over a 60% win rate over my last 500+ plays, but I decided to back one of the most polarizing figures in the event while fading a golfer whom the general public seems to love.
My model was all over the map when comparing Wyndham Clark and Sepp Straka, but my upside numbers heavily favored Clark. Some of the safety returns for Straka moved him closer when diving into their overall ranks for the week because Straka has posted only one finish outside the top 16 since the Valspar Championship in March.
However, I am bullish on this take of fading Straka when the data tells a different story for Pinehurst No. 2.
My model ranked Straka 89th when combining Long Iron Proximity + Around the Green play, 75th for Weighted Bogey Avoidance, 88th for Weighted Scoring and 74th for Expected Strokes Gained: Total.
If I am wrong on my stance here, there is a chance that this wager will get ugly. I understand the risk in either scenario since Clark doesn't have a built-in floor to feel comfortable about either, but it is essential to remember that not all courses generate the exact expectations.
That factor has boosted Straka's profile up into a range against Clark, who has missed three of his previous five cuts but fits the venue much better than he has during most of those recent missed cuts.
You don't have to look any further than the fact that last year's U.S. Open champion was one of my most significant fade candidates at the Memorial Tournament last week. I took Tony Finau against him in a head-to-head battle and also had Straka as my best bet in this article last Thursday when he took on and beat Jason Day in round one.
All of that keeps pushing me back to the sentiment that not all bets or courses are created equally. If my math is correct that Straka's current form is creating a boosted profile for a course that may not suit his game, I will take a chance that I can buy low on Clark while selling high on Straka.
It's important to note that Straka's safety advantage made him more enticing in this battle had this been a full-tournament matchup instead of an 18-hole matchup. My math had this proper at -125, although a pure statistical output moved this massively above that total, which is why I decided to take a chance.
For more of my thoughts on this week's U.S. Open, including my full betting card, check out this week's Links + Locks U.S. Open Tournament Preview wherever you get your podcasts or on Youtube.
