2024 U.S. Open Props: Nationality Bets for Justin Thomas, Alex Noren & More

A major championship and golf immortality are on the line this week as Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina hosts the 2024 U.S. Open.

Just like the PGA Championship at Valhalla, we’re back for another edition of 2024 U.S. Open Props, including three nationality bets.

These days, the majors are the only four weeks of the year where all of the game’s best gather in the same place with the hopes of bringing home coveted hardware.

The early reports from the Sand Hills are that the greens are already crazy fast, and with no rain projected in the forecast all week, many expect plenty of carnage throughout the tournament. That’s just how the USGA likes it, and you can find a full course preview for Pinehurst No. 2 here.

Major weeks often offer some juicy numbers for outright plays on big-name golfers, but in addition to those types of wagers, there are also opportunities to find value in more creative markets.

One of those markets is Nationality Props. I’ve identified four golfers below in different Nationality markets that I believe offer strong value at their respective numbers.

All odds are via DraftKings.

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2024 U.S. Open Props

Top American Finisher: Justin Thomas +2200

Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele have won the two majors thus far in the season and are playing better than anyone else in the world right now. Scheffler in particular is at a level we haven’t seen in more than 15 years.

So am I really taking a different American farther down the board in this market? Absolutely.

Justin Thomas had, for his standards, an atrocious 2023 season, but over the last six months, he’s quietly started to figure things out, and the results are starting to show.

I believe this is the major where he officially announces his return to elite form.

JT’s iron play has always been the biggest strength of his game, and it has returned to top form since he currently sits seventh in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach for the season.

With how firm Pinehurst is expected to play, landing iron shots in the proper sections of the greens will be critical all week, and there are very few in the world I trust more than Thomas to do exactly that.

Additionally, Justin should be able to take less than driver on a handful of tee shots each round, which will take a little bit of pressure off his driver that can sometimes get sporadic.

There’s no question that putting has been a struggle for Thomas for some time now, but maybe crazy fast greens are what he needs to free up his mind a bit and gain some confidence with the flatstick.

Ultimately, I’ll take an elite ball-striker with major championship pedigree to finish as the top American if you’re going to give me odds north of 20-1. Expect JT to be in the hunt all week.

Top Continental European Finisher: Alex Noren +1200

I rode Alex Noren in this exact market at Valhalla at a similar number, and the only continental Europeans to beat him were Viktor Hovland and Thomas Detry, who both came out of nowhere over the weekend. Nonetheless, back to the well we go.

The Swede continues to fly under the radar this season. He may be into his 40s, but Noren is often the last player on the range grinding away at the game he loves.

Noren is a former top-10 player in the world who has recaptured a lot of that form in 2024.

Plenty of numbers back that up because Noren currently ranks third on the PGA Tour in Scoring Average, fourth in SG: Total, 11th in SG: Tee to Green, and fifth in Greens in Regulation Percentage.

Hovland, Rahm and Åberg are currently the three favorites in the Continental European market this week. However, Åberg and Rahm have injury concerns, and I believe Hovland’s short game limits his ceiling given the challenging up and downs at Pinehurst this week.

12-1 feels like great value to me on a player who loves to battle on difficult golf courses, has a phenomenal short game and is playing with a ton of confidence.

Editor's Note: Since Jon Rahm withdrew, the odds have shifted in this market and Noren is currently 10-1 at DraftKings, but as always, be sure to shop around.

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Top Canadian: Adam Hadwin +400

Admittedly, this is play with a little bit of recency bias, but I could not have been more impressed with the quality of golf that Adam Hadwin demonstrated last week.

Hadwin went toe to toe with Scheffler and Morikawa at the Memorial and finished solo third at a golf course that was playing extremely difficult.

The Canadian has always been a strong putter with a great short game, both of which will be needed this week on Pinehurst’s greens.

Beyond that, he gained over eight strokes on approach and nearly three strokes off the tee at Muirfield Village. His approach week was his best in over five years on the PGA Tour!

Expect Hadwin to head to North Carolina with a ton of confidence from last week, and if he can bring the same complete game he had last week, he could get into contention again.

Adam has the second-best odds in this market behind only Corey Conners, and there are only six other Canadians in the field.

I’ll back Hadwin at +400 to build on what he showed last week and take top honors in the Canadian market.

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