Can Rory McIlroy end his nearly 10-year major championship drought tomorrow?
It will not be easy since Bryson DeChambeau has generated genuine production this week to gain a three-shot advantage, but I do like where our betting card sits entering round four.
If McIlroy does get across the finish line, it is going to be a massive week for us here with how the week has gone, but let's keep the gas pedal floored to the ground and try to close the week out with another head-to-head matchup that you can find over at Bet365 in round four.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 U.S. Open Round 4 Prediction
Tommy Fleetwood (-120) over Cameron Smith
I don't want to spend an entire article regurgitating the same thoughts about why I am fading Cameron Smith for the second consecutive day after we got Collin Morikawa over him at a similar price on Saturday. However, I stand by this belief that the general population is maintaining a reliance in Smith this week that my model is having a hard time seeing in the market.
The Aussie has struggled mightily off the tee during all three rounds, losing negative-3.66 shots to the field to rank 73rd out of 74 players. That output has merged rather accurately with the pre-tournament projection that saw him grade 129th out of 156 players in 'Expected Strokes Gained Off-The-Tee' for the event inside of my model.
This isn't as stout of a head-to-head pairing as we got in round three since my model loved Morikawa's potential to skyrocket up the leaderboard to pair with the fade possibility that we got with Smith.
Nonetheless, I still questioned a handful of these matchups that bet365 threw out there on Sunday, including plays that just missed my cut in Min Woo Lee over Shane Lowry and McIlroy over Bryson DeChambeau.
If books want to keep placing Smith in these battles against top-15 players within my model, we will keep firing on prices that are too low.
Editor's Note: This matchup has been taken down at bet365, but as always, be sure to shop around.
