It was a terrible, horrible, no good and very bad week for our predictions at the Memorial Tournament.
Patrick Cantlay didn’t even stick around for the weekend, while all of my placement bets fell apart on Sunday. This brings the season bankroll down to $231. We are down but not out.
- “It’s not whether you get knocked down, it’s whether you get back up.”
- “The comeback is greater than the setback.”
- “Our greatest glory is not in never falling, but in rising every time we fall.”
These are my mantras for 2024 U.S. Open week. It’s hard to believe the year’s third major is already upon us. There’s a PGA Tour event nearly every week of the year, and it still feels like it goes too fast.
We should all be excited for this week because we get to see Pinehurst No. 2 for the first time since 2014. Martin Kaymer ran away from the field that week by peppering fairways and getting up and down from everywhere around the green with the Texas wedge.
Pinehurst No. 2 was originally designed by Donald Ross and went through a renovation in 2011. The course is a par-70 that stretches over 7,500 yards. The length is daunting, but the course is expected to be extremely firm and fast, which should make it play a bit shorter.
It’s fairly open off the tee with fairways 35 to 45 yards wide, but there’s a risk/reward decision to be made on a lot of the holes. Playing from the fairway is a huge advantage because golfers will be forced to play from sandy waste areas if they stray too far offline. It’s up to lady luck at that point, as you are just as likely to draw a bad lie as a good one.
I expect total driving to rule the day because a combination of distance and accuracy will be required off the tee. Regardless of driving distance, golfers will face many long iron approach shots of 175+ yards.
The greens seem large in size at an average of 6,500 square feet, but they will play a lot smaller than that. They are dome-shaped with very little rough around them to stop the ball. The greens are going to repel even slightly errant approach shots.
Rather than the typical gouge-it-out scrambling we see at a U.S. Open, golfers will be faced with tricky tight-lie chips.
One aspect that is hard to quantify is mental fortitude. This is one of those weeks where golfers have to shake off the bad breaks because there will be plenty of them throughout the week. I’m looking for strong total drivers of the ball, excellent long iron players, and golfers who have an exceptional short game (especially from the fairway).
It’s time to find a winner!
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: -$100
- Current bankroll: $231
2024 U.S. Open Predictions
Collin Morikawa
Outright Winner +1600 (BetRivers) | Winner w/out Scheffler +1200 (FanDuel)
$10 to pay $170 | $10 to pay $130
I’m not going to lie — betting anyone not named Scottie Scheffler is scary at the moment. I am breaking up my two outrights into two different bets (for a half-unit on each) – one on the outright and one on the winner without Scheffler market.
Morikawa has a lot going for him this week. For starters, he’s a perfect fit for the course. He’s one of the best total drivers of the ball on Tour and is third in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 18 months.
His short game has never been anything to write home about, but he has gained at least 1.4 strokes around the green in six of his last seven starts and has gained at least three strokes putting in three of his last five starts. If the short game holds up, I expect him to be in the mix on Sunday.
He enters the week in tremendous form after finishing second, fourth, T4, T16, ninth and T3 in his last six events.
Bryson DeChambeau
Outright Winner +2000 (BetMGM) | Winner w/out Scheffler +1600 (FanDuel)
$10 to pay $210 | $10 to pay $170
Similar to my Morikawa bet, I am placing a half unit on DeChambeau in the outright market and a half unit on him in the winner without Scheffler market. He has been in contention in each of the first two majors this year – he was leading the Masters late on Saturday and was a lip-out away from going into a playoff with Xander Schauffele at the PGA Championship.
He’s a cerebral golfer, so I expect him to have a well-thought-out game plan for Pinehurst No. 2. We know he tends to be aggressive off the tee, which gives him a wide range of outcomes this week.
When betting outrights, we’d rather have someone with a high ceiling and a low floor than someone with a high floor and a low ceiling. He already has a U.S. Open trophy on his mantle, and I’m hoping he can add another one this week (or at the very least finish second to Scheffler).
Tyrrell Hatton
Top 10 +500 (BetRivers)
$20 to pay $120
I’m going against my advice earlier on targeting golfers with strong mental fortitude. I’m partly kidding, as Hatton has said time and time again that his frustration on the course actually helps him concentrate. He gets it out of his system quickly and moves on to the next shot.
If you look at his long-term stats, he should be an amazing fit for Pinehurst No. 2. He’s accurate off the tee with respectable distance, a strong iron player, elite around the greens and a good putter.
He has played in 13 events this year and has finished in a tie for 15th or better in nine of them. The field size at LIV Golf events needs to be mentioned, but I would counter that with the fact that he finished in the top 10 at the Masters.
Sahith Theegala
Top 10 +500 (BetRivers)
$20 to pay $120
Theegala was known as a short-game specialist during his first couple of years on the PGA Tour. While many still think that’s the case, his statistics tell a different story.
Over the last three months, he’s top 15 in this field in both Strokes Gained: Off the tee and Strokes Gained: Approach the Green.
Believe it or not, his around the green play has been what has held him back this year! He’s an elite putter and his ball-striking seems to be getting better and better. If he can recapture some of that short-game magic, I like his chances of finishing in the top 10 this week.
Russell Henley
Top 20 +275 (bet365)
$20 to pay $75
Henley typically doesn’t find my betting card on a course that measures over 7,500 yards, but these fairways are going to be firm and fast. By all accounts, hitting fairways is going to be more important than distance off the tee. This should play right into Henley’s hands because he’s very accurate off the tee.
He’s elite with his long irons and is very underrated around the green at sixth in Strokes Gained: Around the Green over the last 18 months.
He’s also been much better on the greens this year, ranking in the top 25 in Strokes Gained: Putting in this field over the last six months.
Enjoy the week since we only have two more majors until next April!
