Pinehurst No. 2 will host the 2024 U.S. Open this week, and there are four key X-Factors I’ll be watching out for that could decide the major championship this week.
Scottie Scheffler is playing the best golf of anyone since prime Tiger Woods right now, and the U.S. Open may be his to lose.
However, when Scheffler and other golfers miss the fairways at Pinehurst No. 2, they'll have to contend with the sandy waste areas that are littered with wiregrass and variance.
If Bryson DeChambeau avoids the wiregrass this week, he’ll have a huge leg up on the field because of his extreme distance off the tee, but will he maintain that advantage on his second shots or forfeit that edge with poor iron/wedge play?
Other flushers can be trusted with their irons but have major question marks with their putter(s). Can any dark-horse ball-strikers put the pieces together on the greens and win what is expected to be an extremely challenging U.S. Open?
Find my 2024 U.S. Open X-Factors below.
2024 U.S. Open X-Factors
Scottie Scheffler's Putting
If you bet on anyone other than Scottie Scheffler to win this week, you are making two bets: (1) that Scheffler will not play his best golf, and (2) that the golfer you’re backing will finish first among the mere mortals in the field.
Since Scheffler switched to a mallet putter eight tournaments ago, he has five wins and seven total top-two finishes. His lone non-top-two finish came at the PGA Championship when his veteran caddie, Ted Scott, wasn’t present for the third round, and Scheffler was arrested that Friday morning before the second round.
While his putter isn’t a weakness anymore, it’s significantly more likely to be a weakness than any other part of his game.
Per Data Golf’s Skill Ratings, Scheffler ranks first in Strokes Gained (SG): Off the Tee, first in SG: Approach the Green by a wide margin, second in SG: Around the Green and 56th in SG: Putting.
Last week at Muirfield Village, Scheffler’s approach play led him to victory, as he led the field by gaining 12.96 shots on the field with his irons, via PGA Tour Shotlink Data.
Not only did that lead the field, but Scheffler was also more than five shots better than the man who was second on approach this week, Adam Hadwin at +7.6 SG: Approach the Green. Scheffler also gained more than twice as many shots on approach as the golfer who was third with his irons, Justin Thomas at +5.17 SG: Approach.
The gap between Scheffler and any other player in the field is significant, but don’t take my word — trust the oddsmakers.
At bet365, Scheffler is priced at shorter odds to win by four strokes or more at +700 than any other golfer is to win at all this week with Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele holding the second-shortest outright odds at +1300.
Per Data Golf, Scheffler’s performance right now with a DG Index of +3.11 is the second-best peak of any golfer in the last three decades — with Tiger Woods’ DG index of 3.89 from 2000 ranking first.
It’s his tournament to lose.
Wiregrass in the Sandy Areas
The wiregrass this week will produce variance — sometimes golfers will miss the fairway and draw clean lies in the sandy area, while others will be less lucky and have to pitch out to the fairway.
The in-between lies where golfers guess how the ball will jump out will also be fun to watch and will play a key role in determining how tough the missed-fairway penalty is this week.
Wiregrass has been moved into the landing areas for this event and will be subsequently moved out of the landing areas so regular play isn’t slowed down following the event.
With most PGA Tour events having tree-lined fairways or rough, this is a different look for most golfers this week, and it should make the tournament uniquely challenging and strategic given the runoffs around the green and the importance of angles into these lightning-quick surfaces.
Judging lies, strategy and execution will all be important when golfers miss the fairway this week at Pinehurst No. 2.
Bryson DeChambeau’s Approach Play
Bryson DeChambeau’s elite length has been a huge asset so far in the two majors this season. He led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee at the Masters and was second in SG: Off the Tee at the PGA Championship.
Among those who made the cut, DeChambeau also unsurprisingly led the field in Driving Distance in both of those events.
This week’s fairways are relatively wide at 35-45 yards in width in the landing areas, and DeChambeau figures to have a significant advantage off the tee once again.
However, his iron play will determine whether or not he can capitalize on this edge and hoist his second U.S. Open trophy.
DeChambeau was solid on approach in both the Masters and PGA Championship, as he ranked 22nd and 20th, respectively, in SG: Approach. But he will need to be better this week, especially considering the premium on approach play at Pinehurst No. 2 given the upside-down-saucer-shaped greens that repel inaccurate approaches.
With only two par-5s at Pinehurst No. 2, it won’t be as easy for DeChambeau to capitalize on built-in scoring chances because of his prodigious length, so his irons (and wedges when others are hitting irons) will need to create birdie opportunities.
There are also only two par-4s that play under 400 yards on the scorecard — the 387-yard par-4 third hole and the 385-yard par-4 13th hole — so it remains to be seen if the USGA will make either of those holes drivable for DeChambeau, even if moving the tees up 20 yards means it’s only drivable for him and a couple of others in the field.
His putting is a strength, and he's coming off of his second-best short game performance in terms of Strokes Gained: Around the Green of his major championship career — only behind his performance at the 2020 U.S. Open, which is, of course, his only major victory to date.
His iron play will not only be key to setting him up for birdie opportunities but will also be important in terms of preventing himself from missing in the wrong spots around the green.
Over the last 10 majors, Scheffler has averaged just over 1.5 Strokes Gained on Approach per round. In that same span, DeChambeau has not exceeded 1.3 strokes per round on Approach in any of those 10 majors.
The only time DeChambeau exceeded the 1.5 Strokes Gained per round on Approach at a major came in his lone major championship victory at Winged Foot in 2020, so he has shown that he's capable of spiking with his irons.
Will Anyone on Team No Putt Break Out?
If you’re someone like me who loves to bet on ball-strikers, you may have invested in someone on "Team No Putt" recently.
For the uninitiated, "Team No Putt" is comprised of golfers who have the ability to win on any given week on the PGA Tour if their putter gets hot or simply isn’t a huge liability.
If you’ve listened to the Links + Locks Betting Previews with Spencer Aguiar, Nick Bretwisch and myself, you’ve probably heard us make our cases each week for a ball-striker on "Team No Putt" who has outright betting value because of his upside from tee to green — with Tony Finau being the most likely culprit on a weekly basis.
We know a golfer like Finau may not be likely to gain strokes putting, but the strengths throughout the rest of his bag give him some tantalizing upside if he can just roll the rock with some consistency for four days.
This is especially true on a week like this where the winning score is expected to be closer to even par than usual since ball-striking can help separate golfers more easily because every aspect of the game will be challenged this week due to the significant penalties for missing fairways and missing greens in regulation.
Golfers this week who have a chance to win if their putters cooperate include Finau, Corey Conners, Justin Thomas, Si Woo Kim and Shane Lowry, among others.
Of all the majors where ball-striking can be rewarded more than a usual PGA Tour event, this U.S. Open seems like a great fit for someone on "Team No Putt" to break out if they can just hole a few more putts than usual.
