Akshay Bhatia has been brilliant over the opening three rounds at TPC San Antonio and will carry a three-shot lead over second-place chaser Denny McCarthy and a seven-shot lead over Brendon Todd heading into Sunday.
While the event's outcome will play into the storyline heading into Augusta, I'd prefer to highlight the stats contributed this week by all players competing at Augusta a few days from now. I think all of that gives us a better idea of how players are performing entering the biggest event of the year.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Valero Texas Open Participants Before The Masters
Denny McCarthy
Score: -11
Place: 2nd
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 13th
It has been a good three days for Denny McCarthy. The American has combined stellar iron play and short-game prowess to skyrocket himself up the leaderboard in Texas.
My Augusta model had some concerns about his lack of course history, but number one for anticipated putting on those quick Bentgrass greens and expected scrambling can make up for some of the lack of understanding of the course.
You are never going to get entirely around that answer. Still, I'd rather my player be a short-game savant over anything else if they are going to go to that particular track with no experience.
Masters Rank
Russell Henley
Score: -7
Place: 4th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 5th
Six consecutive top-31 finishes for Russell Henley at the Masters gave him a top-25 safety return in my Masters model.
Henley is a far superior player this season than we have ever gotten in the past, making the 7.81 strokes he has gained this weekend tee-to-green in Texas even more encouraging for his chances a few days from now.
Masters Rank
Hideki Matsuyama
Score: -7
Place: 4th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 8th
While Matsuyama's putting will be the question mark entering next week, the ball-striking has remained elite.
Matsuyama has now gained a minimum of 2.6 shots tee-to-green in seven of his past eight tournaments. All of those factors are good trends for the 2021 winner of the green jacket.
Masters Rank
Ludvig Aberg
Score: -6
Place: 6th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 1st
We might be a few years away from options like Ludvig Aberg or Wyndham Clark being ready to capture a Masters title, but the two options are as good of a shot as we have had for a first-time winner at the course since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Aberg has been dominant with his ball-striking marks through three rounds this week.
Masters Rank
Rory McIlroy
Score: -5
Place: 7th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 10th
Even though I wasn't overly encouraged by McIlroy's third-round performance Saturday, I am more OK with the outcome since the struggles came directly with his driver.
McIlroy is an elite total driver who has excelled historically with that portion of his game at Augusta National, and we are getting just enough from him this week to keep the optimism there. That is a scary thought for my bankroll.
Masters Rank
Tommy Fleetwood
Score: -4
Place: 11th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 6th
I have some concerns about Fleetwood and his Masters profile, but his struggles so far this week with the safer parts of his game could bode well for his chances at Augusta.
Masters Rank
Jordan Spieth
Score: -3
Place: 17th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 3rd
I probably couldn't have asked for a better Valero Texas Open for Spieth than what we have gotten so far this week.
You aren't going to find a golfer creative enough to hit it off a rooftop to create a better drop, and while the short game has crumbled, it is not as if that isn't his long-term strength.
You can find my expected rankings for him below.
Masters Rank
Max Homa
Score: -2
Place: 26th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 14th
Homa's biggest deterrent to success for this year's Masters would be his lack of success at the venue.
No finishes in the top 40 over four career attempts is problematic, but his trending stats this week could put him in a position to better any of those finishes.
Masters Rank
Best of the Rest
Lucas Glover
Score: -4
Place: 11th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 17th
Thorbjørn Olesen
Score: -4
Place: 11th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 21st
Olesen ranks as one of the best long iron proximity players in my model. That could help him find success at Augusta.
Adam Schenk
Score: -4
Place: 11th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 34th
Adam Scott
Score: -3
Place: 17th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 30th
Austin Eckroat
Score: -1
Place: 37th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 9th
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Score: -1
Place: 37th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 64th
I am willing to forgive this performance from Fitzpatrick. My 'Seven Deadly Sins' article that I wrote the other day had Fitzpatrick as one of only nine names who survived and landed as a potential winner.
Corey Conners
Score: 0
Place: 44th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 24th
Brian Harman
Score: 0
Place: 44th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 52nd
Ryo Hisatsune
Score: 1
Place: 54th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 53rd
Nicolai Hojgaard
Score: 3
Place: 64th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 7th
I am extremely interested in this performance by Hojgaard. I had been waiting for his driver and irons to turn around for a few weeks now.
Collin Morikawa
Score: 3
Place: 64th
Expected Place On The Leaderboard: 46th
