TPC San Antonio proved once again to be a very stern test. The wind is the pivotal factor around this place and Texas golf as a whole. Looking at the forecast again, expect a ton of wind tomorrow. Although there will be wind, the formula for success remains the same, and it may just make it easier to predict the outcomes this weekend.
The more the wind blows and the tougher the golf course gets, the more the elite ball-striking is rewarded.
Let's take a look at the stats and the leaderboard, and find a few bets ahead of this weekend at the 2024 Valero Texas Open.
2024 Valero Texas Open Leaderboard, Odds
- 1st, Bhatia -11 (+130)
- T2, McCarthy -7 (+1200)
- T2, Todd -6 (+1200)
- T2, Henley -6 (+900)
- 5th, McIlroy -5 (+500)
- T6, Fleetwood -4 (+2200)
- T6, Simpson -4 (+6500)
- T6, Schenk -4 (+4000)
Bhatia Leads the way thanks to a 9-under first round and a solid 2-under second round.
Sleeping on a massive lead is never an easy thing. The young man looked shaky early in his round but did what he needed to do to shoot under par.
At these odds, it's not worth chasing the 22-year-old in the outright market. There are a ton of hungry chasers a few shots behind him, and going wire-to-wire on the PGA Tour is a feat that's not accomplished often.
Bhatia is second in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and gaining strokes in every category. I don't see Bhatia absolutely gagging this tournament, but I would not be shocked if the putter cools off and he's simply chased down.
Jordan Spieth Top 10 (+140)
Spieth is an extremely safe and solid bet to finish this tournament inside the top 10. He currently sits 3-under after a round of 68 on Friday.
More importantly, he's absolutely striping the golf ball. Spieth ranks fifth in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 10th in Strokes Gained: Approach in this current field. Only two players are hitting the golf ball better in terms of off-the-tee and approach.
In the windy conditions, the better ball-striking will vault these players up the leaderboard. Spieth is still in this tournament to win it, but finishing inside the top 10 should be a piece of cake.
Chan Kim Top 10 (+800)
Chan Kim has played an extremely steady tournament thus far. He has shot 70 and 72 in his first couple days of the event to put himself inside the top 20.
Kim is hitting the ball extremely well. He ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking thus far but is losing strokes on the greens. Kim sits only one shot back of the current top 10, and sneaking in there is more than doable over the next 36 holes.
He doesn't even need to gain strokes on the green, but if he does, that will be a major bonus.
If Kim continues this solid ball-striking, he will find himself in the top 10 come Sunday. If he finds the putter over the weekend, he can flirt with the top three.
Adam Svensson Top 5 (+6000)
Svensson has played eerily similar in his last few golf tournaments. The Canadian has gotten out to very fast starts but lost his game when the weekends come around. That's never a good thing, but it tells me he's extremely close to playing solid golf.
The most important stat in regard to success around TPC San Antonio is approach. Through 36 holes, Svensson ranks seventh in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Another reason I love this long number is that Svennson will be going out in the morning because the wind will get much worse later in the day. Svensson will get out there before the worst of the wind and have a chance to post one of the lower numbers of the day.
He's a golfer who can get scorching hot in 18-hole spurts, and this is a great spot for that. If Svensson can post a round in the mid-to-low 60s, that score will hold up very well throughout the day.
