With heavy winds expected in the forecast Sunday, my betting advice to anyone wanting action on the day would be to move forward cautiously with your exposure.
Unfortunately, my card will end up being multiple units down when everything is said and done (assuming Adam Hadwin doesn't provide the ultimate get-out-of-jail card with a win).
It was one of those weeks where I don't even think the selections were that flawed in the matchup market after my model believed Davis Thompson should have been in the top seven of the leaderboard after two days en route to what became a missed cut versus Webb Simpson. It also had a two-shot expected victory on Brendon Todd over Mackenzie Hughes on Saturday when combining how both players struck the ball and adding in their baseline short-game metrics. That lost by one.
And all of that is prior to us even talking about the laughable two days from one of our outright wagers in Sungjae Im, a name my model projected 27th from his ball-striking statistics but inevitably landed 146th through two rounds because of a 10.81-shot implosion on and around the greens.
Whether or not this is the answer anyone likes to hear, that is gambling in a nutshell. There will be positive EV wagers that lose, bets that win that may have been miscalculated and everything that could land in between. However, the goal of sustaining long-term bankroll growth will always come from attacking the edges and letting variance take its course from there.
Worrying about every small run in either direction will drive you nuts.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Valspar Championship Data
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
We talked pre-tournament on this week's Links & Locks podcast about how certain long drivers (Cameron Young being one of those names) experienced a massive increase in their projection when given a club down course. That is not the expected answer since most people equate length with heightened success at a longer course, but Young continued that belief here at Copperhead, gaining a tournament-leading 4.39 strokes with his driver through three rounds.
The American will need one more day like that if he finally wants to get himself into the winner's circle after countless close calls. My model thought he was the second favorite to win this title.
Strokes Gained: Approach
It has been a ball-striking masterclass from Keith Mitchell this week to propel himself to the top of the leaderboard. Mitchell has not been worse than 12th during any of the three days when combining his driving + approach metrics, which has helped him to be 4.84 strokes better in that area compared to the rest of the field.
My model believes this is Mitchell's event to lose Sunday because of the consistent returns. I know we didn't get a clean final round from Jake Knapp in Mexico the last time someone lapped the field in this fashion, but Mitchell would take the same result if it equated to his victory.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Hadwin has that prototypical profile of a golfer in the hunt who doesn't have the metrics to warrant that possibility coming to fruition.
I hope I am wrong because I need Hadwin more than most Sunday, but we would need a complete 180 with the driver and irons to turn around what has been a rather average ball-striking contest.
Strokes Gained: Putting
I felt every putt Hughes made in his matchup Saturday against Todd.
If you are looking for pure win equity, Peter Malnati, Cameron Champ, Todd and Chandler Phillips would have the best metrics to use with the putting totals.
I tend to think we can shrink that down to just Todd when adding in some of my pre-event totals, but someone is going to need to catch fire if they want to surpass Mitchell on the leaderboard.
Prediction: Mitchell wins his second PGA Tour title over Todd and Young, who are trying to chase him down all day.
