Here's everything you need to know about 2024 Wells Fargo Championship first-round leader picks — our expert's three FRL bets for this week's PGA Tour event in Charlotte, North Carolina.
With the Byron Nelson in the rear-view mirror, we now look forward to this week's 2024 Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow Club hosts once again, which it has done annually since 2003 (with the exceptions of 2017 and 2022).
Quail Hollow is a par-71, 7,558-yard track designed by George Cobb and redesigned by Tom Fazio that features Bermudagrass greens with Poa trivialis overseed and is a course that rewards long hitters.
Find my 2024 Wells Fargo Championship first-round leader picks below.
2024 Wells Fargo Championship First-Round Leader Picks (FRL)
Usually, my strategy for targeting first-round leaders is looking for golfers who tee off earlier in the day. The first wave almost always scores better than the second wave, which makes sense considering that the greens only firm up as the round progresses.
The earlier a golfer tees off, the more soft greens he faces that are much more receptive to his shots. However, the weather calls for rain and wind throughout the day on Thursday, and I don't think either wave will have a clear advantage over the other.
Rory McIlroy +1600 (bet365 | 0.17 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 12:39 p.m. ET
That brings us to Rory McIlroy. You can shift his full tournament number from 7-1 to 16-1 by taking him to lead after the first round, which makes sense considering the increased volatility of this market.
However, he can win any and all rounds at Quail Hollow, given that Rory is a three-time winner of this event. This domination at Quail Hollow makes sense because it is a bomber's course, and McIlroy is the best driver of the golf ball on Tour.
Any concerns of his recent form are now nullified with his recent win at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Yes, that is a team event, but McIlroy mostly carried Shane Lowry throughout the week anyways.
McIlroy has also gained total strokes in each of his past seven tournaments with ShotLink data. Given his recent form and dominant course history, I think there are worse golfers to back in the first round than McIlroy at 16-1.
Matt Fitzpatrick +3500 (bet365 | 0.14 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 12:50 p.m. ET
Teeing off in the group immediately following McIlroy is Matt Fitzpatrick, who enters this week in great form with five straight weekend appearances. He boasts three top-11 finishes over that stretch, so the recent form is there.
Only four of those tournaments possess ShotLink data, but he has gained true total strokes in all four of those events. Meanwhile, Fitzpatrick has gained distance off the tee over the field in nine of his 11 tournaments this season but can also scramble when needed, given that he ranks above the Tour average in scrambling percentage.
I mention the ability to scramble because four of the top-six finishers here last year ranked in the top six in the field in scrambling, the only metric or statistic in which such a trend occurred.
Sahith Theegala +3500 (FanDuel | 0.11 Units)
Thursday Tee Time: 12:28 p.m. ET
Our final FRL target this week is Sahith Theegala, who is proving to be one of the next generation's potential superstars at 26 years old. This season, he boasts five top-10 finishes over his 11 individual tournaments.
Theegala gained distance off the tee over the field in 10 of those 11 tournaments. On top of his ball-striking, we also know he can scramble when needed, given that he ranks 47th on Tour in scrambling percentage this year.
Lastly, Theegala made his tournament debut here last season. Although it only led to a 56th-place finish, he now has four rounds of experience here under his belt, so an improved performance with that added course knowledge could be in store on Thursday.
Here's my full betting card for the Wells Fargo Championship, and you can find more of my thoughts on this week's tournament on the Links + Locks Best Bets podcast:
- Patrick Cantlay Outright Winner (+2000 at FanDuel) – 0.36 Units
- Max Homa Outright Winner (+2500 at BetMGM) – 0.33 Units
- Justin Thomas Outright Winner (+3000 at FanDuel) – 0.3 Units
- Akshay Bhatia Outright Winner (+5000 at FanDuel) – 0.27 Units
- Adam Scott Top 10 (+450 at FanDuel) – 0.24 Units
- Chris Kirk Top 10 (+500 at FanDuel) – 0.20 Units
- Rory McIlroy FRL (+1600 at bet365) – 0.17 Units
- Matt Fitzpatrick FRL (+3500 at bet365) – 0.14 Units
- Sahith Theegala FRL (+3500 at FanDuel) – 0.11 Units
