I mentioned on this week's Links + Locks podcast that sportsbooks created a disaster of a board by trying to price bettors out of Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy. Unfortunately, that's is rearing its ugly head through two rounds.
At the moment, Schauffele is dominating the field with an impressive 11-under par, leaving his closest competitor, McIlroy, trailing by four shots.
That output has taken me out of the running for wanting to add additional outright wagers since the projected win equity is sitting firmly in the corner of those two golfers. However, that doesn't mean we can't try to add a matchup wager to get things back in motion this week.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Round 3 Date-Driven Picks
According to my model, here are the five most underpriced options on DraftKings' Saturday slate.
The projection takes 65% of my pre-tournament data and merges it with 35% of the actual statistical performances for the week. Quality ball striking will give each name a boost, whereas overproduction compared to a golfer's baseline with their short game will shift the outlook negatively.
I will be playing all five of these options for DFS, although I do want to focus a little more on Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
My model graded Bezuidenhout as the best value pre-tournament because of his lackluster support from bettors. Part of that grade on my end stemmed from his 17th-place rank for Expected Strokes Gained Total for Quail Hollow and 15th-place return for Projected Putting + Iron Play, outweighing the public narrative of this course being too long for his game.
While the driver has shown concerns over two rounds, Bezuidenhout's third-place rank for iron play (out of 69 players) has my model expecting a bounce back from his short game as he's currently underachieving his baseline mark by 2.05 shots.
Fades
According to my model, here are the five most overpriced options on Saturday's DraftKings slate.
Rickie Fowler, Denny McCarthy, J.T. Poston and Mackenzie Hughes have combined to lose 14.54 strokes to the field when adding together driving + approach metrics, with Will Zalatoris the only option landing positive for the week at +1.14 shots.
While the profile has a much better chance for success when looking into Zalatoris' chances versus the other four, the more significant concern stems from my sheet's inferior rank before a ball was even struck on Thursday.
I am going to continue fading Zalatoris in DFS at what feels like an inflated price, while the other four are entirely in my no-fly zone for all contests and wagers.
My favorite route to take would be Bezuidenhout (-115) over McCarthy at Bet365.
