We are one week away from the next major championship, and this weekend another prestigious PGA Tour stop will serve as a good appetizer before next week’s PGA Championship main course at Valhalla.
Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina will play host to this year’s Wells Fargo Championship, and many of the best in the world will tee it up.
This is one of the most difficult courses on Tour each year, requiring precise approach shots and benefitting long, accurate players off the tee. While many of the best in the world will be in action, the biggest name in golf will not be. Scottie Scheffler will take his second consecutive week off, as his wife is due to give birth this week. His absence opens the door for a variety of longshots to steal a win.
Let's take a look at my 2024 Wells Fargo Championship Sleeper Picks & Longshots below.
2024 Wells Fargo Championship Sleeper Picks & Longshots
Rickie Fowler 65-1 (FanDuel)
After Rickie Fowler worked his way back into contention and the national spotlight in 2023, 2024 has not been as kind just yet.
In 11 starts, Fowler only has one top-20 finish this season. The good news is that it came in his most recent appearance, where he finished tied for 18th at the RBC Heritage.
Quail Hollow is the seventh-most predictive course on Tour, meaning that past results matter more here than most courses. Rickie Fowler has been one of the best here for the entirety of his career with five top-six finishes in 11 starts. Fowler also won the Wells Fargo Championship back in 2012 and is second in the field this week in total Strokes Gained at Quail Hollow over his career.
Since 2017, in his last five appearances at the course, Fowler has finished in the top 25 four tines, including a 14th-place finish last year, a fourth-place finish in 2019 and a fifth-place finish in 2017 at the PGA Championship.
If his most recent result is any indicator of what is to come, this is a great buy-low spot for Fowler, who is one of the few golfers looking forward to another weekend at Quail Hollow.
Jake Knapp 165-1 (bet365)
Let’s go back to the well, shall we?
Last week in this very article, we gave out Jake Knapp at 90-1 odds as one of our favorite longshots of the weekend. Knapp took the lead into the clubhouse after Friday and was in contention until midway through the final round on Sunday, meaning that if you did place an outright bet on Knapp, you likely had cash-out offers at over 30-1 as his odds dwindled down to +120 midway through the day on Saturday.
Whether or not you got in on the Jake Knapp party, it is hard to deny his star power when he gets it going. Knapp now has four top-10 finishes this season in just 12 starts, and his upside makes this bet at 165-1 intriguing.
He has shown a propensity for stringing together strong performances as well. After he won the Mexico Open, he immediately followed that up with a fourth-place finish at the Cognizant Classic.
Vidanta Vallarta is one of the most bomber-friendly courses at the Mexico Open, while PGA National is one of the tighter tracks on Tour with water lurking for inaccurate drives and approaches at the Cognizant Classic in the Palm Beaches. Knapp excelling at both kinds of courses is impressive.
Quail Hollow benefits long drivers and accurate approach shots, and Knapp qualifies for both. He ranks 24th in Total Driving and 29th in Driving Distance this season. He is also ranked 11th on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach the Green.
If Knapp can get off to a hot start once again, he has the stuff to remain into contention late into the weekend.
Brendon Todd 160-1 (FanDuel)
For our final longshot this week, Brendon Todd has shown some great form in the last few weeks and also has a history of success at Quail Hollow.
Brendon Todd won’t wow you off the tee. He's short but ranks well in Driving Accuracy (50th). However, what he lacks in Driving Distance, he makes up for with his short game and putting, which is important on a course as difficult as Quail Hollow.
Todd ranks 35th in Scrambling, 11th in Putts Per Round and 14th in One-Putt %. He will need to be elite on and around the greens to contend, but his performance this season indicates he is capable of doing just that.
Todd has made 11 starts this season, but his best two performances have both come in his last five appearances. He finished tied for sixth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and then tied for fifth at the Valero Texas Open, which have been two of the most difficult tournaments on the PGA Tour this year.
Todd has only played two events at Quail Hollow in his career, but he was very impressive in both, finishing eighth in 2023 and 18th in 2019. His average finish of 13th is the very highest number of any golfer in the field this week at this course. At 160-1, Todd is worth a sprinkle in case he finds that magic again.
