This week's Wells Fargo Championship has turned into a two-man race with a few outsider runners looking to play spoiler.
I think this is a better DFS board than anything else because of the potential game theory routes we can consider. It is hard to add any additional wagers in the outright sector when over 90% of the projected win probability is landing under Rory McIlroy or Xander Schauffele.
My model will be even more aggressive than the market suggests on those two capturing the title, but we can still highlight some of the statistics produced this week in hopes that value can still be found on this board when searching various areas.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and an interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Wells Fargo Championship Stats Through Three Rounds
Baseline Putt + ATG Score
We see a few deviations from within the leaderboard of golfers who have massively underperformed.
Names like Corey Conners, Seamus Power, Tommy Fleetwood and Alex Noren should all be within the top seven of this event, but are 18th or worse. There are also some deeper options, like Adam Scott and Adam Svensson, who aren't even cracking the top 30.
Baseline Putt + ATG Difference (Underachievers)
The "scoring difference" column signifies how many strokes worse each golfer is shooting when adding their actual ball striking and comparing it with their baseline short game.
For example, Emiliano Grillo should be 11.31 shots better than where he sits.
Baseline Putt + ATG Difference (Overachievers)
I always look for a red flag return by seeing if the leaders land on this list. While some form of overachieving is expected when leading a golf tournament, massive discrepancies are where trouble can loom.
The fact that McIlroy and Schauffele avoided the top of this list tells me one of those two will be the winner Sunday.
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
With two top-17 finishes from Conners at the PGA Championship over the past three years, the Canadian is trending in the right direction for next week after placing first in this field for approach and eighth with his driver.
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
There was less of a direct correlation than expected between my pre-tournament projections for Strokes Gained: Around The Green and actual productivity. However, it still managed to be a factor since Cameron Young was the only golfer in the top 17 to produce negative strokes when combining that portion of their game with putting totals.
Essentially, golfers could be bad in one of those two areas, but had to salvage it with the other metric.
Strokes Gained: Putting![]()
Outright Grades Entering Saturday
As has been the sentiment throughout this article, Schauffele and McIlroy are doing everything right this week.
Look for one of those two to take down the title and ride the wave of momentum into next week's PGA Championship.
