The PGA Tour season continues this week with the 2024 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale. Our Action Network golf betting experts have already peppered the board at open on Monday morning with outright bets, and they have three ready.
Find our 2024 WM Phoenix Open Early Outright Bets below.
2024 WM Phoenix Open Early Outright Bets
Jason Sobel: Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)
Give me one player to win this tournament, and I might go with Justin Thomas (+1300), which makes him more than serviceable for OADs and DFS, which is where I’ll list him below. However, I don’t like the idea that JT is some 4.5 times more likely to triumph here than Ben An.
In five previous starts at the WM, An owns two top 10s and four top 25s, never failing to break 70 in his 10 Thursday/Friday rounds. He finished T31 in last week’s shortened 80-man event but started the season solo fourth at The Sentry and lost in a playoff at the Sony Open. It’s taken perhaps longer than expected for the 2009 U.S. Amateur champion to fully come into his own, but at 32 he might be on the verge of becoming something close to an elite PGA Tour player.
Even with a BMW PGA Championship title to his name from nearly a decade ago, it’ll take a win in the U.S. to leap into the next echelon, but he certainly has the goods to get it done. At a spot that’s been nice to him in the past, I like playing him at this number.
Spencer Aguiar: Corey Conners +6600 (BetMGM)
Wyndham, my sweet Wyndham.
It takes a lot to transform my page from a Jason Day account to one that solely backs a different golfer, but back-to-back times backing Clark at 100/1 at the U.S. Open in 2023 and last week at Pebble Beach would do that to anyone.
It's been a wild Monday on the odds board because of Xander Schauffele and Viktor Hovland withdrawing from the field. Let the LIV rumors swirl, although I believe this has more to do with the quality of current play for Hovland and travel for Schauffele before the Genesis next week over anything more profound.
I thought the board presented a massive chance for Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas or Max Homa to end this 100-1 (and longer) outright run to begin 2024. However, it is worth noting that things start to fall apart slightly when we dip a little further down the board in projected win equity totals.
J.T. Poston and Byeong Hun An were steady performers in my model when diving into the head-to-head markets because of their increased floors, but outright betting is about taking shots, and I found more value further down the slate and outside of the 50/1 zone.
I will talk more about my longshot-heavy card this week on the Links + Locks Podcast here at Action Network, but I wanted to further highlight Corey Conners at 66/1 for the time being because of his ascension up my model in projected ball-striking at TPC courses.
Matt Gannon: Byeong Hun An +5000 (FanDuel)
Benny An has a great track record around TPC Scottsdale. He has five made cuts in five trips with some high finishes as well. He is enters this year's event in better form than the prior trips, and this is a much weaker field than years past after the WM Phoenix Open was a designated event last year.
The dilution of the PGA Tour is giving these middle-tier golfers legitimate win equity, and An can easily be the next one. He is truly a top-five driver of the golf ball in this field and has a great short game to match it, which are two of the most important stats at this track. 50-1 is a great number on a golfer who already has two finishes in the top four to start this season.
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Roberto Arguello: Si Woo Kim +7000 (FanDuel)
Last year at the 2023 WM Phoenix Open, over 45% of approach shots came from between 150 and 200 yards. Si Woo Kim ranked among the top 17 last year on Tour on Approach Proximity from 150-175 yards (24’6” – fifth) and 175-200 yards (32’0” – 17th), so these approach shots at TPC Scottsdale should be right in his wheelhouse. (I'm using last year's data here because we don't have a significant sample size from this season.)
The South Korean enters with momentum as he has three top-25 finishes in four starts (along with a T42) in 2024 and has gained strokes on approach and off the tee in all four events. He’s also coming off of his best approach performance in his last 20 starts on Tour at Pebble Beach, where he ranked eighth in True Strokes Gained: Approach at +1.96, per Datagolf.
Kim's short game is also strong, and he enters having gained strokes around the greens in nine of his last 10 events.
However, Kim’s putting is always an adventure, and he switched to a standard length putter to start this season before moving back to a broomstick. Nonetheless, I’m willing to take a shot on the youngest ever winner of The Players Championship at 70-1 this week as he has the all around game to win in this field if his putter is neutral or even a positive.
This will be Kim’s ninth start at TPC Scottsdale, and his best finishes have come in the last two years with a T26 in 2022 and a T23 in 2023. I'd bet Kim down to 60-1 to win this week, but you can find him as of Monday afternoon at 70-1 on FanDuel.
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