Here's everything you need to know about 2024 WM Phoenix Open picks — our expert mega guide and golf betting picks.
Well, at least we know one thing about this week’s event in the aftermath of the weather-shortened festivities at Pebble Beach: If there’s going to be heavy precipitation at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open, it’ll probably just come in the form of a few hole-in-one beer showers.
Depending on your positions for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, you were either ecstatic at the curious late-Sunday decision that cashed some tickets or enraged that you didn’t get the chance to see your plays go 18 more holes.
Welp, there’s not much point in celebrating or commiserating too long.
In full Belichickese, we’re on to Phoenix.
There’s a nice little dichotomy going on between recent tournament history and the first five weeks of this PGA Tour calendar.
Following Wyndham Clark’s victory from 100-1 pre-tournament odds, five consecutive winners have started the PGA Tour season from triple-digit prices. At this one, though, Scottie Scheffler is the two-time defending champion and – surprise, surprise – the world’s No. 1-ranked player just happens to be the favorite (at +500!) this week.
I’ll gladly skip past Scheffler and his balky putter – and for the most part, the entire top of this week’s board. Instead, I’ll start with a few guys who have been knocking on the door lately and don’t mind showing off a little bravado, as the massive crowds in Phoenix often move the most confident players to the top of the leaderboard.
2024 WM Phoenix Open Picks: Outright Bets
One player to win the tournament at short odds
Byeong Hun An (+5000)
Give me one player to win this tournament, and I might go with Justin Thomas (+1300), which makes him more than serviceable for OADs and DFS, which is where I’ll list him below. However, I don’t like the idea that JT is some 4.5 times more likely to triumph here than Ben An.
In five previous starts at the WM, An owns two top 10s and four top 25s, never failing to break 70 in his 10 Thursday/Friday rounds. He finished T31 in last week’s shortened 80-man event but started the season solo fourth at The Sentry and lost in a playoff at the Sony Open. It’s taken perhaps longer than expected for the 2009 U.S. Amateur champion to fully come into his own, but at 32 he might be on the verge of becoming something close to an elite PGA Tour player.
Even with a BMW PGA Championship title to his name from nearly a decade ago, it’ll take a win in the U.S. to leap into the next echelon, but he certainly has the goods to get it done. At a spot that’s been nice to him in the past, I like playing him at this number.
One player to win the tournament at long odds
Thomas Detry (+15000)
Here’s one of those where I start out with a little caveat emptor: Jump on this price early because I have a feeling it won’t last long. After racing out to the first-round lead with a 63 at Spyglass Hill last week, Thomas Detry was in a share of fourth place, just three shots back, before the remainder of the tournament was canceled. That came on the heels of a T20 at Torrey Pines one week earlier.
He’s always been a wildly talented player, though his ceiling remains vulnerable, considering he owns nine career top-three finishes on the DP World Tour and another on the PGA Tour without ever having won on either. I do think he’s certainly capable, though, and at 150/1, I’m more than willing to take a chance on him being up there once again this week.
2024 WM Phoenix Open Picks: One & Done Picks
Other OADers
Potential selections for one-and-done pools
Min Woo Lee (+3500)
If an ability to play to the crowds is a prerequisite for success at Scottsdale, then Min Woo Lee should be one of the favorites. He hasn’t played his best golf to start the year, but being one of the few qualified players to skip the AT&T Pro-Am last week might wind up being a blessing in disguise.
There might be no better marriage of player and fans than Min Woo at this event, where the chef should whip the crowds into a frenzy as they’ll love him if he’s playing well.
Sahith Theegala (+4500)
If Ben An was my 1A for favorite outright above, then Sahith Theegala was a solid 1B, as he returns to the site of a heartbreaker two years ago, when he hit a tee shot into the water on 17 and finished in a share of third place. Most tee shots at TPC Scottsdale, though, are a bit sprayable, which plays into Theegala’s strengths, as he does everything well except drive the ball accurately.
I’ll have him on my card this week; even if you don’t, he should be in consideration for OADs.
Rickie Fowler (+6000)
Rickie Fowler is another golfer who makes as much sense for an outright play. He hasn’t exactly lit things up in the early part of this year, but Rickie loves playing to the massive crowds, as evidenced by his 2019 victory, two runners-up and five top-10 finishes in 15 previous starts. He should offer a nice leverage opportunity in OADs and DFS, where others might be placing too much of an onus on recent form.
2024 WM Phoenix Open Picks: Placement Bets
Top Five
One player to finish in the top five
Sungjae Im (+600 for Top-five Finish)
Last week on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show “Hitting the Green,” I had Will Wilcox on right after a Tuesday practice round. Sungjae Im's caddie couldn’t have been more effusive in his praise for his player – and for good reason.
While he’s endured a couple of down weeks, Im isn’t too far removed from eight straight global top-25 finishes, and his record at this one doesn’t include any top fives, but it does show a T6 and T7. Here’s hoping he improves on that just a little bit this week.
Top 10
One player to finish in the top 10
Adam Schenk (+750 for Top-10 Finish)
While his record here isn’t anything to get too excited about, Adam Schenk is one of those players for whom I don’t like to pore over too much historical data because, quite frankly, he’s a much better player right now than he was just two years ago. In the most recent edition of this one, he finished T23, which is enough to get me excited for this week.
Top 20
One player to finish in the top 20
Billy Horschel (+333 for Top-20 Finish)
I almost listed Billy Horschel as my favorite longshot above, but at the same 150/1 outright number as Thomas Detry and without the recent form, I pushed him down to this category, though he’ll still likely make my outright card, as well.
He’s finished in the top 10 in two of the last four years and three times overall. This is going to be a nice bounce-back season for Billy Ho – the type of campaign where we’ll see him climb back into the Signature Events soon enough – and it could all start here.
Top 30
One player to finish in the top 30
Keith Mitchell (+170 for Top-30 Finish)
While most of the crowds on the second nine at Spyglass Hill on Thursday were fanboying out over Tom Brady and Josh Allen in the same group, I had a discerning eye on Keith Mitchell, who’s been one of my more popular plays over the past few years. His swing was a little loose over that stretch, but I still have a tough time watching Mitchell and not thinking he’s got what it takes to reach the top 25 in the world ranking.
Betting him for a top 30 is an admittedly conservative play here, as he’s cashed these tickets in two of five prior WM Phoenix Open starts.
Top 40
One player to finish in the top 40
Mark Hubbard (+110 for Top-40 Finish)
This is not exactly a thin limb we’re tiptoeing onto here, as Mark Hubbard was T20 at Torrey Pines and T4 at Pebble Beach. I’ll take the ultra-conservative top-40 play here, but he’s a guy known for being streaky, so don’t be afraid to get a little more aggressive with these props.
2024 WM Phoenix Open Picks: DFS Picks
DFS Free Bingo Square
A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups
Justin Thomas
Tired: Scottie Scheffler crushes it at TPC Scottsdale. Wired: Justin Thomas crushes it at TPC Scottsdale.
Take nothing away from the two-time champion, but JT has finished 17th or better in seven of nine career appearances at this event, including six in a row and a solo fourth last year. If there’s a surprise here, it’s that he’s yet to win, but that could be coming soon, as he’s now finished inside the top six in five consecutive starts.
That’s the convergence we love to target, and it makes Thomas one of my favorite plays on the board in various formats, but especially in DFS, where I’m hoping the masses are too infatuated with Scheffler to squeeze him into their lineups.
DFS Mid-Tier
A medium-priced option for DFS lineups
Beau Hossler
Let’s keep ridin’ ‘til we get bucked off. Beau Hossler has been terrific to start the year and should only be gaining more confidence each week. He’s been one of my favorite targets in these weekly previews for a while now, and he makes for a nice play once again at this one, where he was T14 last year.
DFS ‘Dog
A lower-priced option for DFS lineups
Nick Hardy
The results haven’t quite been there – between 23rd and 47th in his last four starts – but Nick Hardy’s statistics look fantastic, as he’s gained strokes both off the tee and with his irons in each of those appearances. I’m banking on that translating into better finishes soon enough.
2024 WM Phoenix Open Picks: Misc. Bets
First-Round Leader
One player to post the low round Thursday
Kurt Kitayama (+7500 for FRL)
On the surface, it probably doesn’t make much sense to take a guy for FRL honors who opened with a 75 last year, but Kurt Kitayama battled back nicely over the final three rounds to finish in a share of 23rd. The UNLV Runnin' Rebel enters this week playing perhaps his best golf since winning last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational and owns the offensive firepower to go low, especially in desert conditions.
Matchup Man
One player who should beat comparable players
Kevin Yu (+15000)
After finishing in a tie for third at The AmEx and a tie for sixth at the Farmers, last week’s weather-shortened T58 might have bettors forgetting about Kevin Yu, but the elite-level ball-striker is still on track to make some serious moves in his sophomore season.
A resident of Scottsdale who attended nearby Arizona State, this is likely one that he’s had circled on his calendar for a while. I like him for props, DFS and maybe even an outright, but his floor as a tee-to-green performer might give him the most value in head-to-head matchups.
Also Receiving Votes
Other players who should provide value
Max Homa (+1700), Eric Cole (+4000), Akshay Bhatia (+10000), Harris English (+10000), Austin Eckroat (+20000), Jake Knapp (+20000), Sam Ryder (+20000), Sam Stevens (+25000), Will Gordon (+30000)
