We’ll never know how the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am would have played out if they finished the final round, but the event getting shortened was probably the best outcome for our bets. Justin Thomas finished in the top 10 at +250, and Eric Cole finished in the top 20 at +190. We had $100 in play and brought back $128 thanks to those two placement bets.
While it’s nice to see a longshot winner every now and then, I’m not a huge fan of it happening every week. I generally focus most of my outright action on the top end and the midrange, so having five straight winners at 100-1 or greater has been a tough start to the year. Eventually, one of the big names is going to put an end to this longshot streak, but that doesn’t mean that it will happen this week.
The WM Phoenix Open is always one of my favorite events. I have been to the event two times and have very fond — and hazy — memories from both trips. Even though this isn’t a Signature Event, we still have a strong field. The fans are going to show up as this is the most attended event on the PGA Tour every year.
As far as the course goes, TPC Scottsdale is a par-71 that measures 7,261 yards. This is one of the most driver-heavy venues on Tour, as evidenced by the average driving distance last year of 303.5 yards. The fairways are fairly average in width (33.5 yards), and the rough isn’t all that penal, but golfers will find trouble off the tee if they spray the ball into the desert or water.
One way to separate from the field is with elite iron play because it's very difficult to get close to these pins. In fact, this has been one of the 10 toughest courses in terms of Proximity to Hole each of the last five years, so being dialed in with irons can be a big advantage. The other way to separate is to score on the three par-fives and on the drivable 17th hole.
We have seen a number of bad putters play well here over the years (Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Gary Woodland, Justin Thomas), but being strong around the green is a necessary skill. I am looking for golfers this week who are strong off the tee, on approach and around the green.
- Starting bankroll: $1,000
- Last week: +$28
- Current bankroll: $896
2024 WM Phoenix Open Predictions
2024 WM Phoenix Open Outright Predictions
Jordan Spieth +2000 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to pay $420
Jordan Spieth’s last win came at the 2002 RBC Heritage. Since then, he’s posted 12 top-10 finishes and three top-three finishes.
His recent tee-to-green play has been mediocre, but he’s third in this field in that category over the last 12 months and ninth in this field over the last six months. He gained 3.4 strokes from tee to green in two rounds at Pebble Beach last week and now has his sights set on an event where he has four top-10 finishes in six appearances.
The most impressive part about his course history is the fact that he’s gained over six strokes on approach four times at TPC Scottsdale. He tends to play the same courses well each year (see Augusta National), and his +2000 odds are more than fair.
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Byeong Hun An +4000 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $820
Byeong Hun An nearly came through for us at the Sony Open in Hawaii, but he couldn’t make a short putt to force another playoff hole against Grayson Murray. He now has four top-four finishes in his last eight worldwide starts.
He seems to be trending toward a victory, and it could easily come at TPC Scottsdale, where he’s 5-for-5 in made cuts with two top-10 finishes. He’s always been excellent from tee to green (fifth in this field over the last 6 months) and has turned into an above-average putter over the last 12 months.
The form is great, the fit is great, and the stellar course history is the cherry on top.
2024 WM Phoenix Open Placement Predictions
Sungjae Im Top 10 +300 (FanDuel)
Bet $20 to pay $80
This is a very fair number for Sungjae Im to finish in the top 10. He’s finished in the top 10 in seven of his last 27 worldwide events and has finished in the top 10 in two of four appearances at this event in his career.
He hasn’t played great the last two weeks (MC and T66), but he doesn’t have the best track record at Torrey Pines or Pebble Beach. Prior to that, he finished T5 at The Sentry and T25 at The American Express. He doesn’t have a major weakness in his game, which is why he’s one of the most consistent golfers on Tour.
Beau Hossler Top 20 +250 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $70
My model has been high on The Hoss for quite some time now. He continues to grind out solid finishes even in events that don’t necessarily set up well for his game. He’s always had an elite short game and has now added some decent ball-striking to the mix.
He has gained off the tee in 12 of his last 16 starts and has gained on approach in four of his last six starts. That doesn’t include the World Wide Technology Championship and the ZOZO Championship (no ShotLink in either event), where he finished in the top 15 in both tournaments.
Hossler finished T14 at this event last year, and I like his chances of replicating that performance this week at +250 odds.
Denny McCarthy Top 20 +300 (bet365)
Bet $20 to pay $80
Denny McCarthy’s ugly course history has resulted in some great odds this week, and I might end up adding him to my outright card at +9000 as a result.
He’s said many times throughout his career that he prefers difficult golf courses. TPC Scottsdale isn’t a major championship, but the winning score rarely gets below 20-under par. On paper, this course should set up well for him because he’s very accurate off the tee, has improved his iron play and has an elite short game.
I’m willing to bet on talent and ignore the fact that he’s made two of four cuts here with a T33 as his best finish.
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