The one caveat to everything I'm about to say will be the weather. There are some significant storms projected to hit Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina, over the next 24-48 hours. I’d assume this either plays as a 54-hole tournament or ends Monday.
Donald Ross designed Sedgefield in 1926, and players have delivered a winning score of around 20-under par over the past five iterations. That shows the property's general ease at its core.
However, the more significant return from that expectation is how the venue performs as one of the 12 most predictable courses on tour in terms of rollover performance.
That's something you can expect when the data starts shifting into buckets of similar production.
Eight par-4s stretch between 400-450 yards. We’re going to see a little over 83% of the approach shots occur from 125-plus yards, with shots from 125-175 yards increasing by over 8% compared to a standard PGA Tour stop.
All of that is promising when building a model since figuring out what has been successful at the track is easy to gather.
However, there's a flip side to the equation that I at least want to point out because a more manageable construction of the numbers should also mean that a general blueprint for success is easier to find for DFS players.
For me, this was all about trying to take the core expectations and extrapolating data from there. I liked the idea of finding comparable courses that measure less than 7,200 yards because it gave me a better idea of what to expect. That would be tracks such as Harbour Town and Sea Island.
Add those to a Ross design that will feature small greens and undulation, heightened three-putt avoidance and the need to hit fairways, and you get a venue that shows off a specific skill set.
2024 Wyndham Championship Data-Driven DFS Picks
Wyndham Championship Plays
All of my plays will carry under 7.5% ownership and land under $7,500. I would prefer pinpointing some ultra-contrarian targets and found a few golfers I didn't talk about heavily this week in the outright market when I recorded the Links + Locks Wyndham Championship Betting Preview.
Ben Silverman ($6,900)
Ben Silverman has quietly made eight cuts in a row, including seven top-40 finishes.
I'm not going to spend as much time on the golfers I'm backing as the names I'm fading since there are always more routes to discuss for a golfer you're looking to take, but I thought Silverman, at the bare minimum, presented a heightened floor compared to most golfers at his price for DFS.
Mac Meissner ($7,100)
I may be low on my Mac Meissner ownership projection. There were sites that lowered his aggregated total when I ran the numbers for the week since he showed under 5%. I also had locations that presented him as someone who may exceed 11%.
I'll take the middle route and assume he's somewhere between those two totals, which would make Meissner a top-20 leverage option on the board and top-five value at his $7,100 price.
For comparison, only Ben Silverman, Jacob Bridgeman and Brendon Todd were graded as having a better value on the slate.
J.J. Spaun ($7,200)
We get the classic debate about what's more important between course history and current form.
I'll always be someone who veers heavily in the direction of form exceeding how someone has performed at the course in the past. The only time it doesn't is when we're dealing with a young golfer.
J.J. Spaun has struggled at Sedgefield, missing three cuts in his last four attempts, but I didn't want to ignore what he has produced on Tour recently after averaging exactly four strokes gained for tee-to-green production.
If you want to go back to 2017 for your results, Spaun would add a 69th- and 16th-place finish at Sedgefield to his otherwise lacking profile. That shift would be enough to move him inside the top 15 of my "Expected Performers" for the week.
Wyndham Championship Fades
These golfers may or may not have high ownership when diving into DFS. I opened the playbook up a little here since I also wanted to find fade-worthy candidates in the matchup market.
Robert MacIntyre ($8,300)
We can talk about all the bad weather that will enter the fray at the Wyndham Championship and how it theoretically helps certain players.
I understand Robert MacIntyre has the potential to play well in poor conditions and has the upside to string that to a high-end finish. You don't have to look further than his five top-16 finishes in his past nine starts, including two outright victories.
However, this is the profile of a golfer who lands under the boom-or-bust category when we start talking about playability in safer markets like DFS cash games or head-to-head wagers.
My model found two major flaws in MacIntyre's game that say Sedgefield is a sub-optimal course fit.
The first category involves removing the driver from his hands. My data saw him go from the 21st player over a two-year span in Strokes Gained: off-the-tee (16th over the past 24 rounds) to outside the top 100 in terms of expectations for this week's plodder's paradise.
The second category — which has a few more shortcomings on my end because of the greens potentially becoming altered by the weather — showed MacIntyre shifting from 32nd in Strokes Gained: Putting over a two-year span (third over the past 24 rounds) to outside the top 100 in Weighted Putting because of his failure to produce on both Bermuda greens and Ross properties in the past.
We know all about the high-end upside for MacIntyre, but he still has six missed cuts over his past 13 starts. I faded him in multiple matchups because of that floor — even if the data shows positives from his recent form.
Remember, matchups are all about getting your player across the finish line above one other target. In order to do that, you sometimes need to fade these volatile options.
Emiliano Grillo ($7,000)
I still believe players traveling from France after competing in the Olympics are being too mispriced in most markets.
In general, I'm attempting to take shots backing those golfers in various ways since we're getting some excellent buy-low opportunities. Yet, that's not the case for Emiliano Grillo.
The easiest explanation is that this will be his fifth consecutive start. He has gone from the Scottish Open to the Open Championship to the 3M Open in Minnesota to the Olympics in Paris, and now he's returning to North Carolina.
That narrative has started to hold a little more weight since we're dealing with a grueling month, but his statistical profile for this venue leaves me even more pessimistic.
Grillo is forced to play in this event because of his 67th-place standing in the FedEx Cup. We've seen him play here just once throughout his career — a missed cut in 2017. This club-down course with Bermuda greens won't check the needed boxes, as he ranks outside the top 90 for both categories.
Finding a matchup against him is a little challenging, but there are some intriguing options if you shop around.
Akshay Bhatia ($9,100)
Of the three options mentioned, I'm least bullish on an Akshay Bhatia fade in the head-to-head sector because of his Weighted Total Driving and Expected Proximity.
However, this landed as the most realistic DFS fade when looking into a projected top-12-owned player at his $9,100 price tag.
The downside to Bhatia this week is that he has struggled historically on quick Bermuda greens and Ross courses. While the speed likely won't match what he has seen in previous years because of the weather, there are still other factors to consider.
When a player sits inside the top 10 in terms of price and ownership despite my model saying otherwise, I'd prefer to bet that he doesn't finish there.
