I'll keep this article short tonight since we still haven't completed two rounds of the event. Please keep that in mind as we review some of these categories inside my model!
Baseline Putt + Around The Green (Top Of The Board)
It was a little surprising to see two players (J.T. Poston and Chez Reavie) miss the cut after ranking inside the top 15 of my 'Baseline Putting + Around The Green' metric.
As always, that category looks at the actual ball-striking that someone has delivered and merges in the expected short-game totals on similar green complexes to better understand performance.
I talked on Friday night about Aaron Rai being my favorite addition on the slate at his 18/1 price. That has improved with his new 8/1 mark, and it shouldn't hurt matters that he now holds the top spot in my recalculated answer above, surpassing our second-place performer Billy Horschel by 0.53 strokes.
Overachievers In That Category
If I were to jump into the fray tomorrow, these would be many of my potential in-tournament fade candidates.
I don't plan to go that route since I didn't love the incomplete profiles and lackluster options available in the space. I will note that Matti Schmid and Rico Hoey still managed to crack the top-55 expected performers in my head-to-head model.
A lot of that weight gets propelled by my pre-tournament information, but it goes back to the example I talked about last week that not every overperformer is necessarily a natural opponent to blindly take on for the day.
Underachievers In That Category Who Missed The Cut But Should Have Made It
I am a little disappointed about how everything worked out in the ways I took on Robert MacIntyre.
The 100% fade route I discussed for the Scottish golfer in my DFS article pre-event will work out very nicely after MacIntyre marginally underachieved to miss the cut altogether. However, I am still going to need Luke Clanton to hold strong in the morning to get past MacIntyre if I want to drop only a small total in fades against him after failing to get Thomas Detry past him in a second matchup.
Sometimes, you can get all the pieces correct in an opponent and still land on the wrong side of your risk. I just have my fingers crossed that it doesn't become a 0-1-1 or 0-2 fade of MacIntyre when I wake in the morning.
Underachievers Who Made The Cut
Technically, not everyone on that list is safe because a few of those names still need to finish round two in the morning.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Eric Cole making this list probably took each out of any real outright consideration from wagers I placed on them pre-event, but there are a handful of names I will be keeping an eye on for DFS contests.
