It's hard to look at a course that's less than 7,100 yards and not overvalue accuracy. I'm not going to try to convince people otherwise, as I also included a great deal of precision when looking into how golfers perform with drivers when the rough gets thick or the fairway percentage drops. However, length isn't irrelevant if you try to think outside the box when making your model.
The most impactful scoring will come when players are forced to hit a driver off the tee. When diving into the five par-four holes between 486 and 505 yards, a collection of setups will feature a bogey-or-worse rate at 24% or higher.
We also get that unique assortment from the three par-fives, ranging between a 50%+ birdie-or-better percentage (hole 18) to the behemoth par-five (14th hole), which barely cracks a 25% birdie-or-better percentage.
There are going to be concerns from there because of the limited data, this being a no-cut contest and that smaller field narrative. However, DFS boards should present an opening if we are willing to put in the research.
Good Chalk
All players had to be over 15% in projected ownership to be considered
Kurt Kitayama ($9,200)
- 11th-Highest DraftKings Price
- 7th-Highest Betting Price
- 4th-Highest Projected Ownership Total
The disparity for DFS isn't quite the same as in the outright market, although I've been a big proponent this week that Kurt Kitayama should be the fourth favorite on the board.
We are talking about a $800 DFS disparity between Kitayama and Sahith Theegala. That means the contrast will be much lower in that area. However, the mistake happened on Monday morning when books priced the UNLV product at 35-1.
Kitayama graded first in my model over the past 24 rounds for 'Weighted Strokes Gained Total' and was the only golfer in this field to rank as a top-three player from each 25-yard bucket between 150-to-175, 175-to-200 and 200+.
With three somewhat challenging par-fives and five par-fours measuring between 486 yards and 505 yards, Kitayama's long iron play can be a massive advantage over the field in a tournament that will somewhat mitigate his putting concerns as we should get a lower winning score than we've been accustomed to recently.
- Similar Option: Justin Thomas $9,500 (23.15%)
- Contrarian Option: Beau Hossler $8,900 (14.09%)
Doug Ghim ($8,600)
- 14th-Highest DraftKings Price
- 12th-Highest Betting Price
- 10th-Highest Projected Ownership Total
On Links + Locks, I recently talked about how something had to give for Doug Ghim.
Ghim had been putting on a masterclass in ball striking, but had failed to deliver much of an upside total before his second-place showing at the Shriners Children's Open.
My model placed Ghim behind only Kitayama for recent ball-striking, which is noteworthy when you realize that he nearly took down the event last week, but was faced with a four-shot disadvantage after landing in the wrong weather wave.
Ghim's recent putting surge has been noticeable and his top-30 ranking for putting on both soft and fast greens only adds to the narrative. If his success in those areas can translate in Japan, a victory could be right around the corner.
I am willing to bet on that upside.
- Similar Option: J.J. Spaun $8,300 (14.01%)
- Contrarian Option: Max Greyserman $8,700 (8.37%), Seamus Power $8,100 (8.85%)
Xander Schauffele ($11,500)
- 1st-Highest DraftKings Price
- 1st-Highest Betting Price
- 1st-Highest Projected Ownership Total
I will be playing all three of the favorites on this board, but the market has gone a little too far in the other direction against Schauffele as he's owned in under 30% of contests.
That still makes him the highest-owned golfer on the slate, but I'd consider anything under 40% a bargain if DFS users are going to equally deploy the favorites.
- Similar Option: Hideki Matsuyama $10,200 (24.80%), Collin Morikawa $10,500 ($28.29%)
- Contrarian Options: I'd rather find my leverage elsewhere
