Welcome to the 2024 ZOZO Championship, which requires the PGA Tour to travel around the world to get the best field of the fall.
Xander Schauffele is the betting favorite this week, followed by reigning ZOZO Championship winner Collin Morikawa. Hideki Matsuyama is next as another former ZOZO winner in his home country, while Sungjae Im and Sahith Theegala round out the players below 20-1.
Our betting experts know which players they're backing — and betting — this week. Let's break down the ZOZO Championship and get to our expert picks.
ZOZO Championship Betting Preview
Favorite We’re Backing
Matt Gannon: Beau Hossler (+3000)
Tony Sartori: Sungjae Im (+1400)
Nick Bretwisch: Collin Morikawa (+700)
Spencer Aguiar: Kurt Kitayama (+3500)
Josh Perry: Si Woo Kim (+3500)
Best Long Shot
Matt Gannon: Lee Hodges (+11000)
Tony Sartori: Patrick Rodgers (+5500)
Nick Bretwisch: Victor Perez (+6000)
Spencer Aguiar: Doug Ghim (+4500)
Josh Perry: Kensei Hirata (+15000)
Player To Fade
Matt Gannon: Sungjae Im
Tony Sartori: Collin Morikawa
Spencer Aguiar: Eric Cole
Josh Perry: Maverick McNealy
ZOZO Championship Tournament Predictions
Matt Gannon: This is a golf course in which a great tee-to-green game will bring you a long way. With that being said, while a great tee-to-green game will always be helpful, it will separate you from the pack here.
We have seen moderate scoring in all three versions of this event, which is great for us. That makes the results far more predictable, as great ball striking should be rewarded.
There are plenty of places to miss a shot and get into trouble both off the tee and into the greens. With this being said, sorting by driving accuracy and trending approach play is a great way to find golfers to make you money during this year's ZOZO Championship.
Tony Sartori: Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club hosts the ZOZO Championship once again, which it has done annually since the tournament’s inception (except for the COVID year). This course is a par-70, 7,079-yard track designed by Shinya Fujita that rewards long hitters.
The course itself isn’t that long, but the par 4s play long and reward those who can handle 200+ yard approach shots. Therefore, I am looking at birdie or better percentage from that range, as well as overall play and recent form, to help narrow down our best bets this week.
Spencer Aguiar: Substantial tree-lined intangibles are in place throughout, and the facility's doglegs will make golfers move the ball in multiple directions.
Naturally, that puts extra credence in the bucket for accuracy over distance when talking about a less-than-7,100-yard course that doesn't present a "bombs away" appeal. However, length isn't irrelevant if you try to think outside the box when making your model.
The most impactful scoring from a production or avoidance standpoint will come when a driver is in hand. We see that when diving into the five par-four holes that land between 486 and 505 yards. Those will be the most challenging locations for the week, not to mention a unique assortment from the three par-fives.
Josh Perry: Since its debut, Narashino Country Club has given the edge to the elite iron players. With the elite players at the top of the board being so strong in that area, it’s really hard to bet anyone here who isn’t at least close to them on the approach and expect them to win.
Accuracy will also play a factor here off the tee. Most courses in this country tend to lean into that style overall, and Narashino is no different.
2024 ZOZO Championship Predictions
Matthew Gannon: Collin Morikawa Top 10 (-140)
This price is far too cheap for the defending champion on a golf course that suits his game perfectly. Not overly long, he is extremely accurate off the tee and won one of the best iron players on earth.
Morikawa has finished inside the top 10 in two of three trips to this event and will make that three of four come Sunday. Look for him to plot along and easily move up this rather weak leaderboard and small field.
Tony Sartori: Sam Stevens Top 20 (+150)
Sam Stevens feels like a high-floor option worth taking a shot at this week. He’s made the weekend in 17 of his past 20 tournaments.
While Stevens only possesses six top-20 finishes over that stretch, this field only consists of 78 golfers. Furthermore, he is a strong long iron player who ranks 25th on Tour in birdie or better percentage from 200+ yards.
His short irons have held him back for the most part, and that problem is mitigated with all the long looks he will have this week on the par 4s.
Spencer Aguiar: Kurt Kitayama -115 over Min Woo Lee (Caesars)
You are going to hear me talk a lot about Kurt Kitayama throughout the week and how I thought he was the fourth-best player on the board.
A lot of our narrative for matchups will change since we have a no-cut contest that will allow high-upside golfers like Min Woo to play four rounds of golf. I don't believe that possesses a perfect return for us since Lee's ability to dominate with his driver and from long distance is a real weapon he can deploy this week.
However, it still comes down to the fact that Kitayama's grade in my model had him closer to the Hideki Matsuyama range in expectation than it did to Lee, who failed to crack the top 20 overall ranked golfers for me on the slate when considering safety.
Joshua Perry: Kensei Hirata Place Bets
I’ll go a bit off the board here with Kensei Hirata. He’s +300 to top 20, +140 to top 30, and -150 to top 40 on DraftKings.
He’s been by far the best playing on the JGTO this year, with three wins in the past two months. He’s a young player, just 23 years old, who may be ready for that next step, either making his way to the PGA Tour or going to Europe.
He’s also comfortable here, finishing 6th in his debut at this event last year.
