We will dive into my ZOZO Championship breakdown soon, but here are the 1-78 standings for each of the four main statistical categories through the opening round of the PGA event in Japan.
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee
Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes Gained: Around The Green
Strokes Gained: Putting
Players Inside Top 30 For OTT + Approach
Players Inside Top 50 For All Categories
I found it amazing that only 14 players passed muster overall when there are 78 total players in this event.
I know that around-the-green has some impact here because of the importance of hitting greens in regulation, but I stand by the belief that the best route for success is to perform above average in the other three categories.
When we look for top 30 golfers for off the tee + approach + putting, here are the names that would remain:
Baseline Putt + Around the Green Score
This category aims to merge actual ball-striking statistics with baseline short-game totals.
This is important because it can highlight the players who are playing the best with their predictable numbers and are due for positive (or negative) regression with the more volatile portions of their game.
The easiest way to read that would be to find red underneath the left side of the columns and blue underneath the right side. That will tell you the players that underachieved (left/red) and overachieved (right/blue).
How someone graded pre-event is still of utmost importance, but this is where the outliers sit when someone like Adam Svensson should have been 13th on the leaderboard but placed 64th.
Biggest Underachievers on the Leaderboard
Note: I only ran this for players who should be inside the top 30 in the field. The list will condense further to only look into top 35 rated players in my head-to-head model.
I always like to dive deeper into the names further down the board when looking into head-to-head matchups for the next day. The reason for that is because the market will typically be lower on these options.
On the contrast, a lot of the upside totals to win the event will start forming on an option like Beau Hossler, who sits in seventh but should have been in third.
Biggest Overachievers on the Leaderboard
Note: I removed any name that landed inside the top 40 of my head-to-head model.
My Favorite Outright Bet at This Moment
Almost every category we have run through today repeatedly mentions one name.
I talked last week about how my model was starting to pick up trends of a potential Beau Hossler victory out in Vegas. We didn't have that come to fruition after he landed inside a wave that rendered a four-shot disadvantage to the field. Still, his Sunday push up the leaderboard when he landed in a fair setting continued this belief from within my math that Hossler is exceptionally close to landing his first tournament title.
I didn't get there pre-event because I wanted to keep some ammunition at my disposal for a potential addition to my card on Friday morning when diving into a name between Hossler, Justin Thomas, J.J. Spaun or Jhonattan Vegas.
Unfortunately, all four of those options still look incredibly enticing and didn't make my choice for Round Two easy, but I am going to bet on the golfer who my model believed should have won at Sanderson Farms, came second at this course last year and has been inside the top 25 in four of his past five starts.
I am adding Beau Hossler 18/1 on bet365 or ESPN BET as my bet, although I don't mind anyone who has extra room for Thomas, Spaun or Vegas.
My only worry about the Thomas portion of a wager is that the market has acted swiftly to him regaining form. Hossler, coming in eight points higher, presents better value.
