With my mind and bankroll splitting time between the NFL Draft and the PGA Tour, I will take a few minutes away from betting JC Latham unders in the market and dive into my 2024 Zurich Classic Data-Driven Picks this weekend at TPC Louisiana.
80 two-man teams will be competing for the title in New Orleans, with the top 33 and ties making the cut. Play will be split between a best-ball format on Thursday and Saturday (also known officially as Fourball) and an alternate shot structure on Friday and Sunday (Foursomes).
While data isn't as easy to come by as a regular stop because of the lack of trackable data over the last handful of years at this event, I did pre-plug some totals on my DFS Rankings Wizard model to highlight how each tandem would best succeed from an optimal sense. You can see where I have all the teams ranked there.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pretournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Zurich Classic Data-Driven Picks
Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better prices if you shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.
Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and shows potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I discussed on the Links + Locks 2024 Zurich Classic of New Orleans Betting Preview podcast.
2024 Zurich Classic Biggest Market Movers
We do this every week when trying to find sharp versus square movement. More often than not, the activity from the public ends up in a direction that falters for all bettors placing wagers on those golfers to win the event.
My answer here doesn't derive thoughts from within my model. I would have a stronger or weaker stance for some of these players than others, but there have been some rather strong shifts from a handful of these tandems.
I'll talk more about why I am not a believer in a few of the teams on that list during the 'Outright Picks' section below.
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2024 Zurich Classic Worst Current Values
A Billy Horschel & Tyson Alexander fade is a hill I have been willing to stand on all week. I talked yesterday on Links + Locks about how Alexander was a true weak link for this team, which is interesting since the market has pushed most prices for this duo even more up this board and into an even better fade spot for matchups.
2024 Zurich Classic Outright Picks
I stand by my sentiment early in the week that the winner ultimately goes off this board in that 70-1 range or shorter.
There is just too much talent for me with these high-end options to ignore, and it is not as if the historical trends over the past five years of this tournament haven't derived the same answer, with Nick Hardy and Davis Riley having the longest odds to take down this title at 40-1.
Technically, that would push anyone priced outside those threshold returns out of my outright consideration list since my model was rather in tune with that sector. I'd also take an equally strong narrative that a team ranked worse than 25th in my model is likely too deep down this board to win the title.
That leaves with us the following duos who can win:
I decided to go aggressively with my card and start with McIlroy and Lowry at +850. To me, this was a perfect pairing since it allows both players to get into that Ryder Cup mentality of team golf as this duo complements each other ideally.
Lowry has the short-iron play to mask some of McIlroy's error-prone nature there, not to mention his par-4 scoring from 400+ yards ranks first in this field and will give McIlroy extra freedom to avoid that aforementioned blow-up potential.
I also took Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin at 40-1.
Unfortunately, that number has left the station and is more in that 25-1 range as of Wednesday afternoon.
The duo ranked in the top-six projected teams and got massively bolstered by their relatively high-end scoring marks for each format this week.
Taylor's Expected Proximity could play especially well in alternate shot, and both possess a high ceiling for birdie-making potential.
My Model's Top Projected Win Equity Choices
- Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele +420
- Rory McIlroy & Shane Lowry +850
- Sahith Theegala & Will Zalatoris +850
- Collin Morikawa & Kurt Kitayama +1300
Best Values To Consider At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)
Most of this value is gone, but I still find intrigue in a McIlroy & Lowry ticket at +850, as well as marginal values in Austin Eckroat & Chris Gotterup, Doug Ghim & Chan Kim at 50-1 and Kevin Yu & C.T. Pan at 80-1.
My card got locked down when I went McIlroy & Lowry and Taylor & Hadwin before the Canadians' price shift.
