We have another Signature Event on tap this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which gets starts on Thursday morning at Bay Hill Golf Course in Bay Hill, Fla.
I probably say this way more than I should, but this is one of my favorite events of the year. The field is elite, the course is fun to watch, and it essentially plays like a major. Bay Hill has been in the top 10 in difficulty on Tour in each of the last five years.
The winners and winning scores during that stretch were Scottie Scheffler (-15), Kurt Kitayama (-9), Scottie Scheffler (-5), Bryson DeChambeau (-11), and Tyrrell Hatton (-4). Depending on the weather, even par can be a great score around this place.
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds
Click arrow to expand Arnold Palmer Invitational odds via DraftKings
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +320 |
| Rory McIlroy | +750 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +1600 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1800 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2000 |
| Justin Thomas | +2500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | +2500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +2800 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | +3000 |
| Sungjae Im | +4000 |
| Will Zalatoris | +4500 |
| Shane Lowry | +4500 |
| Russell Henley | +4500 |
| Keegan Bradley | +4500 |
| Wyndham Clark | +5000 |
| Viktor Hovland | +5000 |
| Taylor Pendrith | +5000 |
| Sam Burns | +5000 |
| Robert MacIntyre | +5000 |
| Maverick McNealy | +5000 |
| Tony Finau | +5500 |
| Sepp Straka | +5500 |
| Matt Fitzpatrick | +5500 |
| Daniel Berger | +5500 |
| Tom Kim | +6000 |
| Corey Conners | +6000 |
| Michael Kim | +6500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +7000 |
| Jason Day | +7000 |
| Jake Knapp | +7000 |
| Ben Griffin | +7000 |
| Akshay Bhatia | +7000 |
| Aaron Rai | +7500 |
| Denny McCarthy | +7500 |
| Adam Scott | +7500 |
| Min Woo Lee | +8000 |
| J.J. Spaun | +8000 |
| Davis Thompson | +8000 |
| Billy Horschel | +8000 |
| Thomas Detry | +9000 |
| Sahith Theegala | +9000 |
| Patrick Rodgers | +9000 |
| Max Greyserman | +9000 |
| Cameron Young | +9000 |
| Sam Stevens | +10000 |
| J.T. Poston | +10000 |
| Byeong Hun An | +10000 |
| Brian Harman | +10000 |
| Alex Smalley | +10000 |
| Taylor Moore | +11000 |
| Lucas Glover | +11000 |
| Aldrich Potgieter | +11000 |
| Stephan Jaeger | +12000 |
| Nick Taylor | +12000 |
| Isaiah Salinda | +12000 |
| Harry Hall | +12000 |
| Harris English | +12000 |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | +12000 |
| Cam Davis | +15000 |
| Max Homa | +15000 |
| Joe Highsmith | +15000 |
| Jacob Bridgeman | +15000 |
| Chris Kirk | +15000 |
| Austin Eckroat | +15000 |
| Andrew Novak | +15000 |
| Nick Dunlap | +17000 |
| Lee Hodges | +17000 |
| Jackso Koivun | +17000 |
| Max McGreevy | +20000 |
| Brian Campbell | +20000 |
| Mackenzie Hughes | +25000 |
| Justin Rose | +25000 |
| Eric Cole | +25000 |
| Charley Hoffman | +25000 |
| Adam Schenk | +25000 |
| Adam Hadwin | +25000 |
| Kris Ventura | +30000 |
| Matthieu Pavon | +30000 |
| Justin Lower | +30000 |
| Tom Hoge | +35000 |
| Rafael Campos | +250000 |
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Schedule
- Dates: March 3-6
- Location: Bay Hill Golf Course, Bay Hill, Fla.
- Par: 72
- Yardage: 7,466
- Purse: $20 million
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks
Outright Winner: Justin Thomas +2800
It took a long time to narrow down my outright bets this week. I thought long and hard about only betting one outright (Scottie Scheffler), but I ultimately couldn't stomach the short number.
Instead, I focused on the mid-range of the odds board.
Justin Thomas has a lot of ties to Florida and the Southeast. He lives in Jupiter (and built Panther National in Palm Gardens), he played collegiately at Alabama, and he grew up in Kentucky. He's won THE PLAYERS Championship and is coming off his best finish ever at this event (T12 in 2024).
His driver has been a bit erratic recently, but he has picked up a ton of speed off the tee. He's 12th in this field in driving distance. He's one of the best iron players on TOUR and is also elite around the greens.
We know he's comfortable in strong fields, as he's won THE PLAYERS and two PGA Championships.
Outright Winner: Patrick Cantlay +3000
I was not expecting Patrick Cantlay to project well in my model or to make my outright card this week, but here we are.
For whatever reason, everyone assumes he has been in bad form for a long time. However, he's made 10 straight cuts with only one finish outside the top 25. More importantly, he has four top-5 finishes during that stretch.
He's always been a great driver of the ball, and I'm encouraged by his recent iron play. In his last 2 events, he has gained 3.5 and 4.4 strokes on approach.
His short game is elite, which should really come in handy on a difficult golf course like this one. He doesn't play a ton during the Florida stretch, but he finished T4 here in 2023 despite losing strokes on the greens.
Top 10: Brian Harman +700
Brian Harman isn't a bomber by any means, but he consistently gains strokes off the tee thanks to his accuracy. In fact, he has been positive off the tee in eight of his last 10 starts.
He has always had an elite short game, so the key for betting him is his iron play. When he starts to get his approach game dialed in, that's the time to strike. He gained 4.8 strokes on approach last week at PGA National and gained 1.8 strokes on approach in his previous start.
Being from Georgia, he's very comfortable playing on bermuda. He's also no stranger to playing well in big events.
Top 10: Cameron Young +700
Here's the thing with Cameron Young — he never seems to play well when everyone expects him to play well. He was a popular punt last week and ended up missing the cut.
Even though he had elite course history at PGA National, I think Bay Hill is a better course fit for him. When he's at his best, he's elite off the tee and elite on approach. His ball striking is what has allowed him to contend at several majors over the years.
He's played this event three times and has finished in the top-15 twice. In such a limited field, I like his chances of finishing in the top 10.
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational Course Preview
Bay Hill is a par 72 that measures 7,466 yards. The fairways are 32 yards wide on average and difficult to hit (59%). The greens are large (7,500 square feet), lightning fast, and feature bermudagrass. Like the fairways, they are difficult to hit on average (59%).
Water is in play on nine of the 18 holes and many of the hazards will essentially serve as a two-stroke penalty (golfers have to drop close to where they were when they hit their approach shot or tee shot). This is a course that tests all aspect's of a golfer's game.
Good drivers of the ball tend to perform extremely well at Bay Hill. This makes sense given the length of the course and the three-inch-thick rough. This might be the only course I remember seeing where driving distance and driving accuracy is weighted more than average on the DataGolf Course Fit tool.
Long iron players have also had a lot of success at this event over the years, as 33% of approach shots will be hit from at least 200 yards.
2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational: How to Watch
- Thursday: Golf Channel (2-6 p.m. ET)
- Friday: Golf Channel (2-6 p.m. ET)
- Saturday: Golf Channel (12:30-2:30 p.m. ET); NBC/Peacock (2:30-6 p.m. ET)
- Sunday: Golf Channel (12:30-2:30 p.m. ET); NBC/Peacock (2:30-6 p.m. ET)
Last Week: Cognizant Classic Recap
Joe Highsmith posted the lowest score in PGA National history with back-to-back 6-under 64s on Saturday and Sunday to claim first place at the Cognizant Classic.
He finished one stroke ahead of Jacob Bridgeman and J.J. Spaun, who tied for second place.
As for my bets, it was another week and another two close calls in the outright market. At one point on Sunday, Russell Henley and Ben Griffin both touched the top of the leaderboard. Immediately after, they forgot how to golf and racked up a few bogeys.
Griffin ended up finishing in a tie for 4th, while Henley ended up finishing in a tie for 6th.
If you are tailing my picks each week, I recommend supplementing the outrights with top 5 and/or top 10 bets. We've had so many golfers in contention this year, it's time to get one across the finish line.
