Editor's Note: This guest post is from PoolGenius, a provider of data-driven picks and tools that have helped pool players win at more than three times the expected rate.
We enter one of the key stretches in One and Done pools this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which is immediately followed by The Players Championship. With a massive $20 million purse and $4 million first-place prize, the Arnold Palmer Invitational ranks tied for the second-largest payout on Tour outside the Majors.
Scottie Scheffler has won in two of the last three years and looks to return to form as the favorite at Bay Hill this week. Meanwhile, this marks the first time this year that the top three golfers in the world – Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy – will compete in the same tournament.
GET PICKS NOW
Odds to Win 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Here are the favorites to win this tournament based on betting odds as of Tuesday:
- Scottie Scheffler (+333)
- Rory McIlroy (+750)
- Ludvig Aberg (+1200)
- Xander Schauffele (+1800)
- Collin Morikawa (+1800)
- Justin Thomas (+1800)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2200)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2200)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+2500)
- Russell Henley (+3300)
- Shane Lowry (+3300)
The top of the odds board is dominated by Scheffler and McIlroy, with Aberg moving up to third fresh off his Genesis Invitational win.
Interestingly, Schauffele is playing his first tournament since early January after a two-month injury absence, which explains his slightly longer odds than we'd typically see.
GET PICKS NOW
Most Popular Arnold Palmer Invitational One & Done Picks
At PoolGenius, we have insights into pick popularity each week. Here's who is expected to be the most popular Arnold Palmer Invitational picks for One and Done pools:
High Popularity (15%+)
- Scottie Scheffler
- Rory McIlroy
Medium-High Popularity (8-14%)
- Patrick Cantlay
- Justin Thomas
Medium Popularity (4-7%)
- Ludvig Aberg
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Shane Lowry
- Russell Henley
- Wyndham Clark
Lower Popularity (1-3%)
- Collin Morikawa
- Xander Schauffele
- Tommy Fleetwood
The two big guns – Scheffler and McIlroy – are splitting top popularity this week, which makes sense given their tournament history and current form. Interestingly, some quality options are coming at relative popularity discounts, including Aberg (fresh off his Genesis win) and Morikawa (tied for fourth in tournament odds).
Schauffele is also flying under the radar, likely due to his return from injury. This creates a potential leverage opportunity for pool players looking to differentiate.
GET PICKS NOW
Best Arnold Palmer Invitational One and Done Picks This Week
This is one of the most critical weeks for One and Done golf picks because of the high purse and deep field. The Arnold Palmer Invitational has historically been dominated by elite players, with Tiger Woods winning eight times and recent champions including Scheffler, McIlroy, and other top talents.
When making your pick this week, you'll need to weigh the immediate value of using a top golfer like Scheffler or McIlroy against saving them for future tournaments. With Thomas showing excellent recent form and Aberg coming off his Genesis win, there are multiple viable strategies depending on your pool position and remaining inventory.
Your ideal Arnold Palmer Invitational pick depends on your specific pool format, size, scoring system, and current standing.
Optimize Your Golf One & Done Picks with PoolGenius
The key to long-term success in One & Done pools is picking the right golfers at the right time.
Rather than guessing which strategy is best for your specific situation, PoolGenius provides custom analytics to help you make the optimal decision each week.
For a tournament like the Arnold Palmer Invitational, with its significant purse, having access to data-driven insights can make a huge difference in your season-long results.
The PoolGenius Golf OAD Picks Tool provides:
- Detailed analysis of each golfer's expected value this week vs. future tournaments
- Customized pick recommendations based on your pool's specifics
- Strategic guidance on whether to play it safe with favorites or find contrarian value
- Season-long planning tools to optimize your remaining golfer inventory
- Multi-entry strategies if you're managing multiple pool entries
Whether you're deciding between Scheffler and McIlroy this week or looking for a strategic leverage play to gain ground in your standings, our advanced analytics help you confidently identify your best option.
Start Winning More – Try PoolGenius for Free
Gain a competitive advantage in your One & Done pool with data-driven picks, season-long strategy, and expert insights tailored to your specific pool format.
